However, my impression is that if P(>10% of the population is infected) is reasonably high — say, >25% — then the cost to the economy would be tremendous, and it would be worth paying a huge cost right now to avoid that possibility.
Are there any explicit approaches you’re thinking of that can be taken? Truth be told I don’t see how we would realistically stave off this scenario, other than the harsh quarantine measures that worked in China. This is (as far as I can tell) a main part of why so many people here are freaking out—we’re headed straight for this scenario and governments are not seeing the smoke. As an example, consider Italy to see the lack of preparedness to take action (closing off a massive region now because it’s too late to contain the Corona locally, 366 deaths total so far, leaked documents on containment causing people to move out of containment areas before containment set in).
For those questions you proceed to pose, my thought is that you have to just make your best guess and go with it. Best guesses may not be perfect, but I would expect them to be solid. In other words, none of those questions seem difficult enough where it would stop us in our tracks.
I totally disagree. I think “someone’s best guess and go with it” is going to be horribly mismatched with what we actually want from stores and supplies, and will be actively harmful. I don’t really know how to explain this in more detail, but I do not think most governments are adequate at the level needed to supply a whole country in an emergency.
I thought the CDC researches and plans for all of these scenarios? Isn’t that their entire purpose? (Sorry for the sass; it isn’t aimed at you :))
No problem ;). I don’t know much about the CDC in particular, but I am currently seeing rather varying responses from health officials globally. This is one of the weaker points in my fears though, maybe our health officials have been preparing for an event like this outbreak for a long time, and have entire flow charts and calling lists and plans ready. I rather doubt it though, considering how (at least for me locally) they’ve been described as overwhelmed, and it’s taking them rather longer to respond than I expected. Also I think most of these health officials have other tasks than specifically targeting novel epidemics, such as fighting the seasonal flu, informing the public and dealing with more ‘mundane’ but far more commonly occurring disease outbreaks. I would love to be wrong here.
20$/50$ per person for a corona test
I think this is simply naive. First of all, there is (again) a huge difference between one test bought for yourself, and purchasing tests for everybody in a country. My limited experience with healthcare systems and bureaucracy suggests that the cost goes up from the increased scale, instead of down. Plus, there are huge costs you’re not including here. People need to administer the test (you think the public can do that individually? Maybe some can, but most? No way), they need to be distributed, and proper action needs to be taken afterwards on positive results. These tests first need to be checked for quality (do you happen to know the rate of type-1 and type-2 errors of that test you mention?), and we need a good way to deal with the millions of false positives that would come out of such a plan. All of this needs to be organised in as transparent and accountable a manner as possible, which is difficult and expensive. I think you’re easily looking at costs an order of magnitude above your estimate (so $100B+ for the USA, based on your number), and plausibly way more.
Plus, even if this would be economically beneficial, you still need someone to step up (ideally right now, instead of in three weeks) and say “The estimated costs are through the roof, let’s take a certain hit of billions of dollars now to prevent a potential loss of way more in the future.”. This is a very risky gamble, both from an economic point of view but also unfortunately as a career move. Also keep in mind the eventual costs to the economy are wide-spread, but the costs from triggering such a plan are highly localised.
Are there any explicit approaches you’re thinking of that can be taken? Truth be told I don’t see how we would realistically stave off this scenario, other than the harsh quarantine measures that worked in China.
Harsh quarantining is the main one. Also promoting low hanging fruit like the stuff we’ve found on the CJPA thread.
I totally disagree. I think “someone’s best guess and go with it” is going to be horribly mismatched with what we actually want from stores and supplies, and will be actively harmful.
Fair enough. It seems this is a pretty important prior. If you’re right about best guesses being horribly inadequate, then I do agree that it would be a bad idea overall.
I think this is simply naive.
Perhaps. You make some good points, and planning fallacy is certainly a thing, so I think your estimate of $100B is probably closer to the truth than my $15B one.
But even at $100B it still seems like a bargain. And I think that similar planning fallacy-related points can be made about estimating what it would cost us if it spread to eg. 10% of the world’s population. Eg. it probably costs a lot more than what our first estimates would be.
This is a very risky gamble, both from an economic point of view but also unfortunately as a career move.
Is it? I’m not well-versed with politics but my impression is that doing things in the name of safety is good for electability. Eg. through the roof military spending.
Well, that’s just one example, and I can also think of counterexamples. There are of course those who want to cut health care spending. And departments like the CDC seem to be underfunded. So overall I get a weak sense that it’d be a risky career move.
However, worrying about your career seems like a big lost purpose to me. Why acquire political power if you’re not going to cash it in at a time like this? I doubt they’re saving it up for something more important. It seems more like they seek power for power’s sake. But I digress.
Are there any explicit approaches you’re thinking of that can be taken? Truth be told I don’t see how we would realistically stave off this scenario, other than the harsh quarantine measures that worked in China. This is (as far as I can tell) a main part of why so many people here are freaking out—we’re headed straight for this scenario and governments are not seeing the smoke. As an example, consider Italy to see the lack of preparedness to take action (closing off a massive region now because it’s too late to contain the Corona locally, 366 deaths total so far, leaked documents on containment causing people to move out of containment areas before containment set in).
I totally disagree. I think “someone’s best guess and go with it” is going to be horribly mismatched with what we actually want from stores and supplies, and will be actively harmful. I don’t really know how to explain this in more detail, but I do not think most governments are adequate at the level needed to supply a whole country in an emergency.
No problem ;). I don’t know much about the CDC in particular, but I am currently seeing rather varying responses from health officials globally. This is one of the weaker points in my fears though, maybe our health officials have been preparing for an event like this outbreak for a long time, and have entire flow charts and calling lists and plans ready. I rather doubt it though, considering how (at least for me locally) they’ve been described as overwhelmed, and it’s taking them rather longer to respond than I expected. Also I think most of these health officials have other tasks than specifically targeting novel epidemics, such as fighting the seasonal flu, informing the public and dealing with more ‘mundane’ but far more commonly occurring disease outbreaks. I would love to be wrong here.
I think this is simply naive. First of all, there is (again) a huge difference between one test bought for yourself, and purchasing tests for everybody in a country. My limited experience with healthcare systems and bureaucracy suggests that the cost goes up from the increased scale, instead of down. Plus, there are huge costs you’re not including here. People need to administer the test (you think the public can do that individually? Maybe some can, but most? No way), they need to be distributed, and proper action needs to be taken afterwards on positive results. These tests first need to be checked for quality (do you happen to know the rate of type-1 and type-2 errors of that test you mention?), and we need a good way to deal with the millions of false positives that would come out of such a plan. All of this needs to be organised in as transparent and accountable a manner as possible, which is difficult and expensive. I think you’re easily looking at costs an order of magnitude above your estimate (so $100B+ for the USA, based on your number), and plausibly way more.
Plus, even if this would be economically beneficial, you still need someone to step up (ideally right now, instead of in three weeks) and say “The estimated costs are through the roof, let’s take a certain hit of billions of dollars now to prevent a potential loss of way more in the future.”. This is a very risky gamble, both from an economic point of view but also unfortunately as a career move. Also keep in mind the eventual costs to the economy are wide-spread, but the costs from triggering such a plan are highly localised.
Harsh quarantining is the main one. Also promoting low hanging fruit like the stuff we’ve found on the CJPA thread.
Fair enough. It seems this is a pretty important prior. If you’re right about best guesses being horribly inadequate, then I do agree that it would be a bad idea overall.
Perhaps. You make some good points, and planning fallacy is certainly a thing, so I think your estimate of $100B is probably closer to the truth than my $15B one.
But even at $100B it still seems like a bargain. And I think that similar planning fallacy-related points can be made about estimating what it would cost us if it spread to eg. 10% of the world’s population. Eg. it probably costs a lot more than what our first estimates would be.
Is it? I’m not well-versed with politics but my impression is that doing things in the name of safety is good for electability. Eg. through the roof military spending.
Well, that’s just one example, and I can also think of counterexamples. There are of course those who want to cut health care spending. And departments like the CDC seem to be underfunded. So overall I get a weak sense that it’d be a risky career move.
However, worrying about your career seems like a big lost purpose to me. Why acquire political power if you’re not going to cash it in at a time like this? I doubt they’re saving it up for something more important. It seems more like they seek power for power’s sake. But I digress.