Assumption: we shouldn’t expect to be able to make strong quantitative predictions unless we also expect to be able to get rich playing the markets.
I’m confused about your distinction between quantitative and qualitative. The way I understand “quantitative”, there isn’t profit to be made off of every such prediction—for example, if copper alloys become widely used in hospitals and consumer products for its antimicrobial properties, the impact on copper prices would be tiny, and the companies making these products are privately traded.
I’m confused about your distinction between quantitative and qualitative. The way I understand “quantitative”, there isn’t profit to be made off of every such prediction—for example, if copper alloys become widely used in hospitals and consumer products for its antimicrobial properties, the impact on copper prices would be tiny, and the companies making these products are privately traded.
That prediction is qualitative. Widely (unknown), and unknown time parameter, unknown how much tiny is, unclear which companies would win.