I think this is probably largely correct when I think about my interactions with laypeople. They have no real guess on timelines, so short ones are totally credible and part of their wide implicit estimate. This introduces a lot of uncertainty. But this somehow also results in higher p(doom) than experts. Recent opinion polls seem to back this latter statement.
I think this is probably largely correct when I think about my interactions with laypeople. They have no real guess on timelines, so short ones are totally credible and part of their wide implicit estimate. This introduces a lot of uncertainty. But this somehow also results in higher p(doom) than experts. Recent opinion polls seem to back this latter statement.