Probably the dfference between laypeople and experts is not the understanding of the danger of the strong AI, but the estimate of how far we are away from it.
I think this is probably largely correct when I think about my interactions with laypeople. They have no real guess on timelines, so short ones are totally credible and part of their wide implicit estimate. This introduces a lot of uncertainty. But this somehow also results in higher p(doom) than experts. Recent opinion polls seem to back this latter statement.
Probably the dfference between laypeople and experts is not the understanding of the danger of the strong AI, but the estimate of how far we are away from it.
I think this is probably largely correct when I think about my interactions with laypeople. They have no real guess on timelines, so short ones are totally credible and part of their wide implicit estimate. This introduces a lot of uncertainty. But this somehow also results in higher p(doom) than experts. Recent opinion polls seem to back this latter statement.