A confidence interval is just an upper and lower bound according to some probability threshold. I.e. it’s just probabilities, and does not require some super special technique.
Regarding the Dirichlet process:
Reading the wiki article it seems like it’s designed for a particular class of problems, and is not a general solution to all problems. So, it would make sense to use it if your problem falls in that class, but not if it doesn’t.
Erm, you are demonstrating that same issue I pointed-out originally: you thinking that you have the right answer, after only a wiki page, is exactly the Dunning-Kreuger Effect. You’re evidence of my argument, now.
The way you derive a confidence interval is by assessing the likelihood function, which is across the distribution of populations. Bayes’ Theorem, as presented by Scott Alexander and Eliezer Yudkowski, does NOT include those tools; you can’t use what they present to derive an actual confidence interval. Your claim of ‘confidence’ on a prediction market is NOT the same as Dirichlet saying “95% of the possible populations’ likelihood MASS lies within these bounds.” THAT is a precise and valuable fact which “Bayes as presented to Rationalists” does NOT have the power to derive.
A confidence interval is just an upper and lower bound according to some probability threshold. I.e. it’s just probabilities, and does not require some super special technique.
Regarding the Dirichlet process:
Reading the wiki article it seems like it’s designed for a particular class of problems, and is not a general solution to all problems. So, it would make sense to use it if your problem falls in that class, but not if it doesn’t.
Erm, you are demonstrating that same issue I pointed-out originally: you thinking that you have the right answer, after only a wiki page, is exactly the Dunning-Kreuger Effect. You’re evidence of my argument, now.
The way you derive a confidence interval is by assessing the likelihood function, which is across the distribution of populations. Bayes’ Theorem, as presented by Scott Alexander and Eliezer Yudkowski, does NOT include those tools; you can’t use what they present to derive an actual confidence interval. Your claim of ‘confidence’ on a prediction market is NOT the same as Dirichlet saying “95% of the possible populations’ likelihood MASS lies within these bounds.” THAT is a precise and valuable fact which “Bayes as presented to Rationalists” does NOT have the power to derive.