The market prices reflect what one would see if one person had rolled the die once and had the result be a 3. Getting the result any other way seems pretty hard.
I would therefore assume that the market probably got that way because one person rolled the die once, and got a 3, so now I have two rolls, 3 and 6, and I should update accordingly.
If the prediction market let me bet non-trivial amounts without moving the prices, then something strange is going on, and “it’s time for some game theory.”
The market prices reflect what one would see if one person had rolled the die once and had the result be a 3. Getting the result any other way seems pretty hard.
I would therefore assume that the market probably got that way because one person rolled the die once, and got a 3, so now I have two rolls, 3 and 6, and I should update accordingly.
If the prediction market let me bet non-trivial amounts without moving the prices, then something strange is going on, and “it’s time for some game theory.”