I downvoted because the conclusion “prediction markets are mediocre” does not follow from the premise “here is one example of one problem that I imagine abundant legal well-capitalized prediction markets would not have completely solved (even though I acknowledge that they would have helped move things in the right direction on the margin)”.
I think “mediocre” is a quite appropriate adjective when describing a thing that we had high hopes for, but now received evidence, according to which while the thing technically works, it performs worse than expected, and the most exciting use cases are not validated.
I indeed used a single example here, so the strength of the evidence is arguable, but I don’t see why this case should be an outlier. I could’ve searched for more, like this one, that is particularly bad:
In any case, you can consider this post my public prediction that other policy prediction markets would also follow a similar thread.
I downvoted because the conclusion “prediction markets are mediocre” does not follow from the premise “here is one example of one problem that I imagine abundant legal well-capitalized prediction markets would not have completely solved (even though I acknowledge that they would have helped move things in the right direction on the margin)”.
I think “mediocre” is a quite appropriate adjective when describing a thing that we had high hopes for, but now received evidence, according to which while the thing technically works, it performs worse than expected, and the most exciting use cases are not validated.
I indeed used a single example here, so the strength of the evidence is arguable, but I don’t see why this case should be an outlier. I could’ve searched for more, like this one, that is particularly bad:
In any case, you can consider this post my public prediction that other policy prediction markets would also follow a similar thread.