Right now the later prediction has 9 points higher probability than the sooner prediction. I counted two or three cases of individual users posting higher probabilities for the later prediction. Unless they’re ’re really confident the first cryonic revival takes place during that decade they’re making a huge mistake. My best explanation is that they just saw a farther off date and assumed a higher probability of everything...
Can some explain to me what is going on with this prediction given this prediction. I’m not going crazy, right:? People are confused.
Interesting—by the time I checked this, it looks like there aren’t any inconsistent estimates.
Right now the later prediction has 9 points higher probability than the sooner prediction. I counted two or three cases of individual users posting higher probabilities for the later prediction. Unless they’re ’re really confident the first cryonic revival takes place during that decade they’re making a huge mistake. My best explanation is that they just saw a farther off date and assumed a higher probability of everything...