Right now the later prediction has 9 points higher probability than the sooner prediction. I counted two or three cases of individual users posting higher probabilities for the later prediction. Unless they’re ’re really confident the first cryonic revival takes place during that decade they’re making a huge mistake. My best explanation is that they just saw a farther off date and assumed a higher probability of everything...
Right now the later prediction has 9 points higher probability than the sooner prediction. I counted two or three cases of individual users posting higher probabilities for the later prediction. Unless they’re ’re really confident the first cryonic revival takes place during that decade they’re making a huge mistake. My best explanation is that they just saw a farther off date and assumed a higher probability of everything...