I reject the notion that any scientific theory can be known to be 100% true, I stated:
Perhaps those scientist from the past should have said it had a high probability of being true.
As we all know now Newton’s theory of gravitation is not 100% true and therefore in a logical sense it is not true at all. We have counter examples as in the shift of Mercury’s perihelion which it does not predict. However the theory is still a source of knowledge, it was used by NASA to get men to the moon.
Perhaps considering knowledge as an all or none characteristic is unhelpful.
If we accept that a theory must be true or certain in order to contain knowledge it seems to me that no scientific theory can contain knowledge. All scientific theories are falsifiable and therefore uncertain.
I also consider it hubris to think we might ever develop a ‘true’ scientific theory as I believe the complexities of reality are far beyond what we can now imagine. I expect however that we will continue to accumulate knowledge along the way.
No, Newton’s theory of gravitation does not provide knowledge. Belief in it is no longer justified; it contradicts the evidence now available.
However, prior to relativity, the existing evidence justified belief in Newton’s theory. Whether or not it justified 100% confidence is irrelevant; if we require 100% justified confidence to consider something knowledge, no one knows or can know a single thing.
So, using the definition you gave, physicists everywhere (except one patent office in Switzerland) knew Newton’s theory to be true, because the belief “Newton’s theory is accurate” was justified. However, we now know it to be false.
Currently, we have a different theory of gravity. Belief in it is justified by the evidence. By your standard, we know it to be true. That’s patently ridiculous, however, since physicists still seek to expand or disprove it.
if we require 100% justified confidence to consider something knowledge, no one knows or can know a single thing.
However I think your are misunderstanding me.
I don’t think we require 100% justified confidence for there to be knowledge I believe knowledge is always a probability and that scientific knowledge is always something less than 100%.
I suggest that knowledge is justified belief but it is always a probability less than 100%. As I wrote: I mean justified in the Bayesian sense which assigns a probability to a state of knowledge. The correct probability to assign may be calculated with the Bayesian update.
This is a common Bayesian interpretation. As Jaynes wrote:
In our terminology, a probability is something that we assign, in order to represent a state of knowledge.
I am fairly certain I understand your position better than you yourself do. You have eliminated the distinction between belief and knowledge entirely, thus rendering the word knowledge useless. Tabooing is not an argument; this conclusion is not valid.
You have repeatedly included in your argument false statements, even under your own interpretation. You have also misinterpreted quotes to back up your argument, such as misunderstanding the statement
In our terminology, a probability is something that we assign, in order to represent a state of knowledge.
To mean that knowledge is a probability, rather than the actual meaning of ‘probability quantifies how much we know that we do not know’.
You are in a state of confusion, though you may not have realized it, and I have no interest in continuing to point out the flawed foundations if you will ignore the demonstration. I am done here.
From what I can see, you’re arguing entirely over the definition of ‘knowledge’ instead of just splitting up individual concepts and giving them different names.
I basically agree, we are. What I’m trying to do is to maintain knowledge as a separate thing from belief. I don’t have particular attachment to this definition of knowledge (as pointed out above, “justified true belief” is a little simplistic), but I can’t find any way that jocko’s version is different from straight-up belief.
You misunderstand me. I did not say it was
I reject the notion that any scientific theory can be known to be 100% true, I stated:
As we all know now Newton’s theory of gravitation is not 100% true and therefore in a logical sense it is not true at all. We have counter examples as in the shift of Mercury’s perihelion which it does not predict. However the theory is still a source of knowledge, it was used by NASA to get men to the moon.
Perhaps considering knowledge as an all or none characteristic is unhelpful.
If we accept that a theory must be true or certain in order to contain knowledge it seems to me that no scientific theory can contain knowledge. All scientific theories are falsifiable and therefore uncertain.
I also consider it hubris to think we might ever develop a ‘true’ scientific theory as I believe the complexities of reality are far beyond what we can now imagine. I expect however that we will continue to accumulate knowledge along the way.
No, Newton’s theory of gravitation does not provide knowledge. Belief in it is no longer justified; it contradicts the evidence now available.
However, prior to relativity, the existing evidence justified belief in Newton’s theory. Whether or not it justified 100% confidence is irrelevant; if we require 100% justified confidence to consider something knowledge, no one knows or can know a single thing.
So, using the definition you gave, physicists everywhere (except one patent office in Switzerland) knew Newton’s theory to be true, because the belief “Newton’s theory is accurate” was justified. However, we now know it to be false.
Currently, we have a different theory of gravity. Belief in it is justified by the evidence. By your standard, we know it to be true. That’s patently ridiculous, however, since physicists still seek to expand or disprove it.
I agree with your statement:
However I think your are misunderstanding me.
I don’t think we require 100% justified confidence for there to be knowledge I believe knowledge is always a probability and that scientific knowledge is always something less than 100%.
I suggest that knowledge is justified belief but it is always a probability less than 100%. As I wrote: I mean justified in the Bayesian sense which assigns a probability to a state of knowledge. The correct probability to assign may be calculated with the Bayesian update.
This is a common Bayesian interpretation. As Jaynes wrote:
I am fairly certain I understand your position better than you yourself do. You have eliminated the distinction between belief and knowledge entirely, thus rendering the word knowledge useless. Tabooing is not an argument; this conclusion is not valid.
You have repeatedly included in your argument false statements, even under your own interpretation. You have also misinterpreted quotes to back up your argument, such as misunderstanding the statement
To mean that knowledge is a probability, rather than the actual meaning of ‘probability quantifies how much we know that we do not know’.
You are in a state of confusion, though you may not have realized it, and I have no interest in continuing to point out the flawed foundations if you will ignore the demonstration. I am done here.
From what I can see, you’re arguing entirely over the definition of ‘knowledge’ instead of just splitting up individual concepts and giving them different names.
I basically agree, we are. What I’m trying to do is to maintain knowledge as a separate thing from belief. I don’t have particular attachment to this definition of knowledge (as pointed out above, “justified true belief” is a little simplistic), but I can’t find any way that jocko’s version is different from straight-up belief.