I don’t like to deal in probabilities, but I’d reckon a successful revival of a dolphin would count. Short of that? Probably nothing, if by ‘considerable’ you mean ‘worth spending my money on’. Things other than evidence might convince me though—like my wife wanting to sign up for cryonics for whatever fool reason.
Does it have to be a dolphin, or would successful revival of a mouse count?
Try not to look up if that’s been done before you answer. If you do know, try to imagine whether you’d count it as evidence, if you didn’t already know.
I don’t like to deal in probabilities, but I’d reckon a successful revival of a dolphin would count.
No, that’s out.
Short of that? Probably nothing, if by ‘considerable’ you mean ‘worth spending my money on’.
Yes, I do mean that.
This means, that no matter what you observe, you always estimate the probability of cryonics working as very low, right up to the point where it does succeed (if that ever happens). Which is equivalent to a priori estimating the probability of it working eventually very low also.
Do you believe that progress will never be made, that it will never be possible to revive a very slowly changing frozen body? In 100 years? In 10000 years? Never ever?
You are not following the argument. You said that you accept the possibility of knowing the outcome from purely theoretical (indirect) argument (that is, not the kind of data where you are presented with successful revival of anything), as in the Einstein’s anecdote. I ask what kind of indirect data/argument that would be, that is enough to convince you to sign up. That you may do that for signaling reasons is irrelevant to the question.
I don’t like to deal in probabilities, but I’d reckon a successful revival of a dolphin would count. Short of that? Probably nothing, if by ‘considerable’ you mean ‘worth spending my money on’. Things other than evidence might convince me though—like my wife wanting to sign up for cryonics for whatever fool reason.
Does it have to be a dolphin, or would successful revival of a mouse count?
Try not to look up if that’s been done before you answer. If you do know, try to imagine whether you’d count it as evidence, if you didn’t already know.
No, that’s out.
Yes, I do mean that.
This means, that no matter what you observe, you always estimate the probability of cryonics working as very low, right up to the point where it does succeed (if that ever happens). Which is equivalent to a priori estimating the probability of it working eventually very low also.
Do you believe that progress will never be made, that it will never be possible to revive a very slowly changing frozen body? In 100 years? In 10000 years? Never ever?
You are not following the argument. You said that you accept the possibility of knowing the outcome from purely theoretical (indirect) argument (that is, not the kind of data where you are presented with successful revival of anything), as in the Einstein’s anecdote. I ask what kind of indirect data/argument that would be, that is enough to convince you to sign up. That you may do that for signaling reasons is irrelevant to the question.