Jeffrey Epstein didn’t commit suicide. Two cameras malfunctioned, the normal procedures weren’t followed, and it’s silly to think he didn’t have compromising information on important people. And it was an incredibly high-profile prisoner.
“Attorney General William Barr described Epstein’s death as ‘a perfect storm of screw-ups’.” Yet several guards were indicted on charges of conspiracy and record falsification.
This belief is so obvious to me that I felt like I was being gaslighted by news outlets and even academics who later called the belief a conspiracy theory in the same class as QAnon and UFOs, including a guest on a FiveThirtyEight podcast about conspiracy theories (I’m a huge FiveThirtyEight fan; they laid the groundwork for me to appreciate this community, which in turn mostly increased my appreciation for FiveThirtyEight).
You could de-convince me with statistics about how often those and similar cameras malfunctioned and how often guards disregarded normal procedures with other prisoners, low profile and high profile.
I had some exposure to this issue a couple of years ago. I got a speeding ticket, which eventually I got off of.
During this process I documented the government making 26 different errors in all. Starting with the speed limit sign that did not comply with their own standards for speed limit signs in 3 different ways....
So I suspect that huge numbers of things go wrong in government all the time and are not noticed. What % of prisoners get checked as required? What fraction of video cameras are out of order at any given time? So the argument “Aha! The camera just ‘happened’ to be out of order!” is not as compelling to me as you might expect.
Tho’ it would not be surprising that JE was taken out. He seems to have operated a blackmail operation in part and no doubt a few people breathed a sigh of relief on hearing of his fate. But I don’t know.
I would give it maybe 40%, because on one hand it was very convenient for many people… and because similar situations certainly happened in the past, I would assume there would be processes designed to prevent such accidents… and if it happened regardless… On the other hand, people are generally incompetent, so you should expect them to screw up.
(Knowing more about what is “normal” in prisons could make me change the estimate.)
so maybe it’s not a “weird” belief except when compared against the mass media/”elite” narrative.
Yup, there can be a huge difference between comparing against the beliefs of:
Jeffrey Epstein didn’t commit suicide. Two cameras malfunctioned, the normal procedures weren’t followed, and it’s silly to think he didn’t have compromising information on important people. And it was an incredibly high-profile prisoner.
“Attorney General William Barr described Epstein’s death as ‘a perfect storm of screw-ups’.” Yet several guards were indicted on charges of conspiracy and record falsification.
This belief is so obvious to me that I felt like I was being gaslighted by news outlets and even academics who later called the belief a conspiracy theory in the same class as QAnon and UFOs, including a guest on a FiveThirtyEight podcast about conspiracy theories (I’m a huge FiveThirtyEight fan; they laid the groundwork for me to appreciate this community, which in turn mostly increased my appreciation for FiveThirtyEight).
A majority of Americans seem to agree with me, although who knows why, so maybe it’s not a “weird” belief except when compared against the mass media/”elite” narrative.
You could de-convince me with statistics about how often those and similar cameras malfunctioned and how often guards disregarded normal procedures with other prisoners, low profile and high profile.
I had some exposure to this issue a couple of years ago. I got a speeding ticket, which eventually I got off of.
During this process I documented the government making 26 different errors in all. Starting with the speed limit sign that did not comply with their own standards for speed limit signs in 3 different ways....
So I suspect that huge numbers of things go wrong in government all the time and are not noticed. What % of prisoners get checked as required? What fraction of video cameras are out of order at any given time? So the argument “Aha! The camera just ‘happened’ to be out of order!” is not as compelling to me as you might expect.
Tho’ it would not be surprising that JE was taken out. He seems to have operated a blackmail operation in part and no doubt a few people breathed a sigh of relief on hearing of his fate. But I don’t know.
Add on the probability of “intentionally allowed to commit suicide” on top of that and the total odds seemingly become high indeed.
I would give it maybe 40%, because on one hand it was very convenient for many people… and because similar situations certainly happened in the past, I would assume there would be processes designed to prevent such accidents… and if it happened regardless… On the other hand, people are generally incompetent, so you should expect them to screw up.
(Knowing more about what is “normal” in prisons could make me change the estimate.)
Yup, there can be a huge difference between comparing against the beliefs of:
average people,
smart people,
media,
Less Wrong.