why did superforecasters put only a 20% probability on AlphaGo beating Se-dol, if it was so predictable? Where were all the forecasters calling for Go to fall in the next couple of years, if the metrics were pointing there and AlphaGo was straight on track?
At least one example of this is my predictions on the Foresight Exchange. I (UID 4176) was buying GoCh at a price of 80¢, a month and a half before the match started (my trades on that claim are listed here).
I am the #1 player on Foresight Exchange (and was in the top 10 in 2016), if that qualifies me as a “superforecaster”. (Admittedly, competition on that site is rather light these days, but was heavier 10+ years ago, when I believe I reached the top 10.)
Eliezer asks:
At least one example of this is my predictions on the Foresight Exchange. I (UID 4176) was buying GoCh at a price of 80¢, a month and a half before the match started (my trades on that claim are listed here).
I am the #1 player on Foresight Exchange (and was in the top 10 in 2016), if that qualifies me as a “superforecaster”. (Admittedly, competition on that site is rather light these days, but was heavier 10+ years ago, when I believe I reached the top 10.)