Your observations are basically “At the point where LLM’s are AGI. I will change my mind”
If it solves pokemon one-shot, solves coding or human beings are superfluous for decision making. It’s already practically AGI.
These are bad examples! All you have shown me now is that you can’t think of any serious intermediate steps LLM’s have to go through before they reach AGI.
No, it’s possible for LLMs to solve a subset of those problems without being AGI (even conceivable, as the history of AI research shows we often assume tasks are AI complete when they are not e.g. Hofstader with chess, Turing with the Turing test).
I agree that the tests which are still standing are pretty close to AGI; this is not a problem with Thane’s list though. He is correctly avoiding the failure mode I just pointed it out.
Unfortunately, this does mean that we may not be able to predict AGI is imminent until the last moment. That is a consequence of the black-box nature of LLMs and our general confusion about intelligence.
What observations would change your mind?
See here.
Your observations are basically “At the point where LLM’s are AGI. I will change my mind”
If it solves pokemon one-shot, solves coding or human beings are superfluous for decision making. It’s already practically AGI.
These are bad examples! All you have shown me now is that you can’t think of any serious intermediate steps LLM’s have to go through before they reach AGI.
No, it’s possible for LLMs to solve a subset of those problems without being AGI (even conceivable, as the history of AI research shows we often assume tasks are AI complete when they are not e.g. Hofstader with chess, Turing with the Turing test).
I agree that the tests which are still standing are pretty close to AGI; this is not a problem with Thane’s list though. He is correctly avoiding the failure mode I just pointed it out.
Unfortunately, this does mean that we may not be able to predict AGI is imminent until the last moment. That is a consequence of the black-box nature of LLMs and our general confusion about intelligence.
Why on earth would pokemon be AGI-complete?