It won’t go from genius-level to supergenius to superhuman (at general problem-solving or specific domains) overnight. It could take years to make progress in a more human-like style.
But AI speed advantage? It’s 100x-1000x faster, so years become days to weeks. Compute for experiments is plausibly a bottleneck that makes it take longer, but at genius human level decades of human theory and software development progress (things not bottlenecked on experiments) will be made by AIs in months. That should help a lot in making years of physical time unlikely to be necessary, to unlock more compute efficient and scalable ways of creating smarter AIs.
Yes, probably. The progression thus far is that the same level of intelligence gets more efficient—faster or cheaper.
I actually think current systems don’t really think much faster than humans—they’re just faster at putting words to thoughts, since their thinking is more closely tied to text. But if they don’t keep getting smarter, they will still likely keep getting faster and cheaper.
But AI speed advantage? It’s 100x-1000x faster, so years become days to weeks. Compute for experiments is plausibly a bottleneck that makes it take longer, but at genius human level decades of human theory and software development progress (things not bottlenecked on experiments) will be made by AIs in months. That should help a lot in making years of physical time unlikely to be necessary, to unlock more compute efficient and scalable ways of creating smarter AIs.
Yes, probably. The progression thus far is that the same level of intelligence gets more efficient—faster or cheaper.
I actually think current systems don’t really think much faster than humans—they’re just faster at putting words to thoughts, since their thinking is more closely tied to text. But if they don’t keep getting smarter, they will still likely keep getting faster and cheaper.