Also, as regards a “Great Stagnation”: Strongly Doubt is not the opposite of Strongly Believe. So I have strong doubts where the balance of my estimation is that Cowen is incorrect—my radio button does not exist, it is too far to one end of the spectrum, despite not being a hyper-radicalized opinion.
I think you should average over your meta-uncertainty and answer according to your overall probability.
I have high levels of doubt but some certainty. Let’s say I’m 80% unsure but have information that leads me to be 20% sure (or, in other words, the probability I would assign to my analysis being correct is only a bit better than guessing). So I’d want something maybe 1/5th away from “Strongly Doubt”. But I am not 1/5th closer to “Strongly Believe”. I am 1⁄5 closer to “Strongly Disbelieve” or “Strongly Disagree”, perhaps.
Sorry, I hadn’t noticed that the leftmost option was labeled “Strongly doubt”—I think I must have seen the “Strongly d” part plus the “Strongly believe” label on the rightmost option and my brain must’ve autocompleted the former to “Strongly disbelieve”.
I would have picked the third radio button rather than the fourth if I had noticed that in time.
I think you should average over your meta-uncertainty and answer according to your overall probability.
You may have misunderstood me.
I have high levels of doubt but some certainty. Let’s say I’m 80% unsure but have information that leads me to be 20% sure (or, in other words, the probability I would assign to my analysis being correct is only a bit better than guessing). So I’d want something maybe 1/5th away from “Strongly Doubt”. But I am not 1/5th closer to “Strongly Believe”. I am 1⁄5 closer to “Strongly Disbelieve” or “Strongly Disagree”, perhaps.
Sorry, I hadn’t noticed that the leftmost option was labeled “Strongly doubt”—I think I must have seen the “Strongly d” part plus the “Strongly believe” label on the rightmost option and my brain must’ve autocompleted the former to “Strongly disbelieve”.
I would have picked the third radio button rather than the fourth if I had noticed that in time.