I am somewhat disappointed to be asked about favorability with a movement without allowing me to distinguish between the ideals of that movement and the movement as it exists (see: feminism and social justice, which, as phenomenon in reality appear to be ways to generate indignation on tumblr—I love equality but do not use tumblr and I don’t see any purpose in being indignant on the internet).
Also, as regards a “Great Stagnation”: Strongly Doubt is not the opposite of Strongly Believe. So I have strong doubts where the balance of my estimation is that Cowen is incorrect—my radio button does not exist, it is too far to one end of the spectrum, despite not being a hyper-radicalized opinion.
There’s the movement as it exists, and there’s one facet of the movement as it exists. For example (and not to push any particular point of view here, it’s just an example), I’m involved in the feminist movement. But I spend no time on Tumblr. Sometimes I read things that reference Tumblr, and my impression is that to get involved on Tumblr would be a colossal waste of time, so I don’t do it. (Once in a while somebody links to something on Tumblr, basically saying “Look at this thing that I saw on Tumblr.”, and I look at that one thing, but I never feel the urge to do more.)
I also make it a point not to get indignant on the Internet, even when discussing feminism. (Occasionally I get indignant in face-to-face contact, but I have time to edit myself on the Internet.) Most of the feminism that I do on the Internet is arranging face-to-face meetings of feminists, so there’s not much to get indignant about. But occasionally I expand my focus to commenting on posts where a discussion, or even an argument, is taking place. The last time that I did that, one person private-messaged me to call me “diplomatic” and another person agreed that I was right after all; both of them had gotten indignant before this, but I hadn’t. (To be honest, this foray was more successful than usual, but the usual is neutral, not disastrous.)
So I do not use Tumblr, and I very rarely get indignant on the Internet, but here I am, in the feminist movement as it exists.
Also, as regards a “Great Stagnation”: Strongly Doubt is not the opposite of Strongly Believe. So I have strong doubts where the balance of my estimation is that Cowen is incorrect—my radio button does not exist, it is too far to one end of the spectrum, despite not being a hyper-radicalized opinion.
I think you should average over your meta-uncertainty and answer according to your overall probability.
I have high levels of doubt but some certainty. Let’s say I’m 80% unsure but have information that leads me to be 20% sure (or, in other words, the probability I would assign to my analysis being correct is only a bit better than guessing). So I’d want something maybe 1/5th away from “Strongly Doubt”. But I am not 1/5th closer to “Strongly Believe”. I am 1⁄5 closer to “Strongly Disbelieve” or “Strongly Disagree”, perhaps.
Sorry, I hadn’t noticed that the leftmost option was labeled “Strongly doubt”—I think I must have seen the “Strongly d” part plus the “Strongly believe” label on the rightmost option and my brain must’ve autocompleted the former to “Strongly disbelieve”.
I would have picked the third radio button rather than the fourth if I had noticed that in time.
I am somewhat disappointed to be asked about favorability with a movement without allowing me to distinguish between the ideals of that movement and the movement as it exists (see: feminism and social justice, which, as phenomenon in reality appear to be ways to generate indignation on tumblr—I love equality but do not use tumblr and I don’t see any purpose in being indignant on the internet).
Also, as regards a “Great Stagnation”: Strongly Doubt is not the opposite of Strongly Believe. So I have strong doubts where the balance of my estimation is that Cowen is incorrect—my radio button does not exist, it is too far to one end of the spectrum, despite not being a hyper-radicalized opinion.
There’s the movement as it exists, and there’s one facet of the movement as it exists. For example (and not to push any particular point of view here, it’s just an example), I’m involved in the feminist movement. But I spend no time on Tumblr. Sometimes I read things that reference Tumblr, and my impression is that to get involved on Tumblr would be a colossal waste of time, so I don’t do it. (Once in a while somebody links to something on Tumblr, basically saying “Look at this thing that I saw on Tumblr.”, and I look at that one thing, but I never feel the urge to do more.)
I also make it a point not to get indignant on the Internet, even when discussing feminism. (Occasionally I get indignant in face-to-face contact, but I have time to edit myself on the Internet.) Most of the feminism that I do on the Internet is arranging face-to-face meetings of feminists, so there’s not much to get indignant about. But occasionally I expand my focus to commenting on posts where a discussion, or even an argument, is taking place. The last time that I did that, one person private-messaged me to call me “diplomatic” and another person agreed that I was right after all; both of them had gotten indignant before this, but I hadn’t. (To be honest, this foray was more successful than usual, but the usual is neutral, not disastrous.)
So I do not use Tumblr, and I very rarely get indignant on the Internet, but here I am, in the feminist movement as it exists.
I think you should average over your meta-uncertainty and answer according to your overall probability.
You may have misunderstood me.
I have high levels of doubt but some certainty. Let’s say I’m 80% unsure but have information that leads me to be 20% sure (or, in other words, the probability I would assign to my analysis being correct is only a bit better than guessing). So I’d want something maybe 1/5th away from “Strongly Doubt”. But I am not 1/5th closer to “Strongly Believe”. I am 1⁄5 closer to “Strongly Disbelieve” or “Strongly Disagree”, perhaps.
Sorry, I hadn’t noticed that the leftmost option was labeled “Strongly doubt”—I think I must have seen the “Strongly d” part plus the “Strongly believe” label on the rightmost option and my brain must’ve autocompleted the former to “Strongly disbelieve”.
I would have picked the third radio button rather than the fourth if I had noticed that in time.