Thanks! In case you are interested in my opinion: I think I agree with 1 (but I expect us to fail miserably) and 2 and 6. I disagree with 3 (AGI, unlike nukes, can be used in ways that aren’t threatening and don’t hurt anyone and just make loads of money and save loads of lives. So people will find it hard to resist using it. So the more people have access to it, the more likely it is it’ll be used before it is safe.) My timelines are about 50% by 10 years; I gather from point 4 that yours are longer. I think 5 might be true but might not be; history is full of examples of different groups fighting each other yet still managing to conquer and crush some third group. For example, the Spanish conquistadors were fighting each other even as they conquered Mexico and Peru. Maybe humans will be clever enough to play the AIs off against each other in a way that lets us maintain control until we solve alignment… but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Thanks! In case you are interested in my opinion: I think I agree with 1 (but I expect us to fail miserably) and 2 and 6. I disagree with 3 (AGI, unlike nukes, can be used in ways that aren’t threatening and don’t hurt anyone and just make loads of money and save loads of lives. So people will find it hard to resist using it. So the more people have access to it, the more likely it is it’ll be used before it is safe.) My timelines are about 50% by 10 years; I gather from point 4 that yours are longer. I think 5 might be true but might not be; history is full of examples of different groups fighting each other yet still managing to conquer and crush some third group. For example, the Spanish conquistadors were fighting each other even as they conquered Mexico and Peru. Maybe humans will be clever enough to play the AIs off against each other in a way that lets us maintain control until we solve alignment… but I wouldn’t bet on it.