I certainly agree that the collapse is a lossy abstraction / simplifies; in reality some domains of research will speed up more than 5x and others less than 5x, for example, even if we did get automated research engineers dropped on our heads tomorrow. Are you therefore arguing that in particular, the research needed to get to AGI is of the kind that won’t be sped up significantly? What’s the argument—that we need a new paradigm to get to AIs that can generate new paradigms, and being able to code really fast and well won’t majorly help us think of new paradigms? (I’d disagree with both sub-claims of that claim)
Are you therefore arguing that in particular, the research needed to get to AGI is of the kind that won’t be sped up significantly? What’s the argument—that we need a new paradigm to get to AIs that can generate new paradigms, and being able to code really fast and well won’t majorly help us think of new paradigms? (I’d disagree with both sub-claims of that claim)
Yup! Although I’d say I’m “bringing up a possibility” rather than “arguing” in this particular thread. And I guess it depends on where we draw the line between “majorly” and “minorly” :)
I certainly agree that the collapse is a lossy abstraction / simplifies; in reality some domains of research will speed up more than 5x and others less than 5x, for example, even if we did get automated research engineers dropped on our heads tomorrow. Are you therefore arguing that in particular, the research needed to get to AGI is of the kind that won’t be sped up significantly? What’s the argument—that we need a new paradigm to get to AIs that can generate new paradigms, and being able to code really fast and well won’t majorly help us think of new paradigms? (I’d disagree with both sub-claims of that claim)
Yup! Although I’d say I’m “bringing up a possibility” rather than “arguing” in this particular thread. And I guess it depends on where we draw the line between “majorly” and “minorly” :)