For PB, you need relatively precise predictions. What exactly do you mean by ‘succeed’?
I was thinking of people making a several predictions on different benchmarks they have set for themselves and by which year they will or won’t be achieved. Take for instance the criteria for what they call “the Poseidon award”:
* Has at least 50 full-time residents.
* Is financially self-sufficient.
* Offers seastead real estate on the open market.
* Has de-facto political autonomy.
Which seastead institute hopes to give out by 2015.
I have put it up on prediction book, I encourage others to estimate its probability and to make other predictions related to seasteading or other projects by the Thiel foundation. :)
I was thinking of people making a several predictions on different benchmarks they have set for themselves and by which year they will or won’t be achieved. Take for instance the criteria for what they call “the Poseidon award”:
Which seastead institute hopes to give out by 2015.
That would be a good place to start making predictions on.
I have put it up on prediction book, I encourage others to estimate its probability and to make other predictions related to seasteading or other projects by the Thiel foundation. :)