Also I’m wondering if anyone would hazard to perhaps offer a prediction or judge how likley this is to succeed (maybe on predictionbook)?
For PB, you need relatively precise predictions. What exactly do you mean by ‘succeed’?
There are a number of ways you could operationalize this—for example, you could go by whether the Seasteading foundation is still active in a given year, whether its budget is above or below a certain amount, whether Thiel is still donating (and how much). One could make predictions about permanent habitats and number of people aboard, and hope that there aren’t unfortunate corner cases like seasteads which only leave port during summer or oil rigs with unclear ownership. And so on.
For PB, you need relatively precise predictions. What exactly do you mean by ‘succeed’?
I was thinking of people making a several predictions on different benchmarks they have set for themselves and by which year they will or won’t be achieved. Take for instance the criteria for what they call “the Poseidon award”:
* Has at least 50 full-time residents.
* Is financially self-sufficient.
* Offers seastead real estate on the open market.
* Has de-facto political autonomy.
Which seastead institute hopes to give out by 2015.
I have put it up on prediction book, I encourage others to estimate its probability and to make other predictions related to seasteading or other projects by the Thiel foundation. :)
For PB, you need relatively precise predictions. What exactly do you mean by ‘succeed’?
There are a number of ways you could operationalize this—for example, you could go by whether the Seasteading foundation is still active in a given year, whether its budget is above or below a certain amount, whether Thiel is still donating (and how much). One could make predictions about permanent habitats and number of people aboard, and hope that there aren’t unfortunate corner cases like seasteads which only leave port during summer or oil rigs with unclear ownership. And so on.
I was thinking of people making a several predictions on different benchmarks they have set for themselves and by which year they will or won’t be achieved. Take for instance the criteria for what they call “the Poseidon award”:
Which seastead institute hopes to give out by 2015.
That would be a good place to start making predictions on.
I have put it up on prediction book, I encourage others to estimate its probability and to make other predictions related to seasteading or other projects by the Thiel foundation. :)