Is now a good time to point out that this bet can be thrown?
As in I could deliberately infect myself or some other member? Sure, but I’m not gonna do that for 30 euros and I think my opponent doesn’t expect me to.
If I was that type of person, and ignoring all social, ethical and legal consequences of doing so… there are at least two factors making my expected payout from it lower than 30 euros, potentially even negative in combination:
There’s still some chance I’d win naturally.
We decided on a set of mutually agreeable arbitrators in the case of ambiguity. If he thought I’d done this, then regardless of other consequences, he could appeal to one of them, and I think he’d have a decent chance of them siding with him.
When your first sample is from known liars and your second from people that fucked everything else up that doesn’t inspire confidence.
Sure, these numbers are obviously not very reliable. But:
If the actual infection rate is 100x the reported one in Hubei, that’s still only 10% of the population. If it’s 100x the reported rate in Italy, that’s still only 5% of the population. If Italy fucked up unusually badly, it’ll be less than 5% in most of the rest of Europe (where most of the chat participants live). Though admittedly the numbers are still growing.
Confirmed numbers are actually unusually relevant for this, because if someone has a mild case and never gets tested, I may not win the bet.
Well, there’s a very good reason for that, isn’t there?
I consider this off-topic and I’d prefer it not to be discussed in this thread.
As in I could deliberately infect myself or some other member? Sure, but I’m not gonna do that for 30 euros and I think my opponent doesn’t expect me to.
If I was that type of person, and ignoring all social, ethical and legal consequences of doing so… there are at least two factors making my expected payout from it lower than 30 euros, potentially even negative in combination:
There’s still some chance I’d win naturally.
We decided on a set of mutually agreeable arbitrators in the case of ambiguity. If he thought I’d done this, then regardless of other consequences, he could appeal to one of them, and I think he’d have a decent chance of them siding with him.
Sure, these numbers are obviously not very reliable. But:
If the actual infection rate is 100x the reported one in Hubei, that’s still only 10% of the population. If it’s 100x the reported rate in Italy, that’s still only 5% of the population. If Italy fucked up unusually badly, it’ll be less than 5% in most of the rest of Europe (where most of the chat participants live). Though admittedly the numbers are still growing.
Confirmed numbers are actually unusually relevant for this, because if someone has a mild case and never gets tested, I may not win the bet.
I consider this off-topic and I’d prefer it not to be discussed in this thread.