I don’t see why you need to count the proportional number of Eliezers at all. I’m guessing the reason you expect an ordered future isn’t because of the relation of {number of Boltzmann Eliezers}/{number of Earth Eliezers} to 1. It seems to me you expect an orderly future because you (all instances of you and thus all instances of anything that is similar enough to you to be considered ‘an Eliezer’) have memories of an orderly past. These memories could have sprung into being when you did a moment ago, yes, but that doesn’t give you any other valid way to consider things. Claiming you’re probabilistically not a Boltzmann Eliezer because you can count the Boltzmann Eliezers assumes you have some sort of valid data in the first place, which means you’re already assuming you’re not a Boltzmann Eliezer.
You anticipate experiencing the future of Earth Eliezer because it’s the only future out of unconsiderably-many that has enough definition for ‘anticipation’ to have any meaning. If sprouting wings and flying away, not sprouting wings but still flying away, sprouting wings and crashing, and not sprouting wings and teleporting to the moon are all options with no evidence to recommend one over another, what does it even mean to expect one of them? Then add to that a very large number of others—I don’t know how many different experiences are possible given a human brain (and there’s no reason to assume a Boltzmann brain that perceives itself as you do now necessarily has a human-brain number of experiences) - and you have no meaningful choice but to anticipate Earth Eliezer’s future.
Unless I’m missing some important part of your argument, it doesn’t seem that an absolute count of Eliezers is necessary. Can’t you just assume a future consistent with the memories available to the complex set of thought-threads you call you?
I realise I’m getting to (and thus getting through) this stuff a lot later than most commenters. Having looked, though, I can’t find any information on post-interval etiquette or any better place to attempt discussion of the ideas each post/comment produces and, as far as I can tell, the posts are still relevant. If I’m flaunting site policy or something with my various years-late comments, I’m sorry and please let me know so I know to stop.
I don’t see why you need to count the proportional number of Eliezers at all. I’m guessing the reason you expect an ordered future isn’t because of the relation of {number of Boltzmann Eliezers}/{number of Earth Eliezers} to 1. It seems to me you expect an orderly future because you (all instances of you and thus all instances of anything that is similar enough to you to be considered ‘an Eliezer’) have memories of an orderly past. These memories could have sprung into being when you did a moment ago, yes, but that doesn’t give you any other valid way to consider things. Claiming you’re probabilistically not a Boltzmann Eliezer because you can count the Boltzmann Eliezers assumes you have some sort of valid data in the first place, which means you’re already assuming you’re not a Boltzmann Eliezer.
You anticipate experiencing the future of Earth Eliezer because it’s the only future out of unconsiderably-many that has enough definition for ‘anticipation’ to have any meaning. If sprouting wings and flying away, not sprouting wings but still flying away, sprouting wings and crashing, and not sprouting wings and teleporting to the moon are all options with no evidence to recommend one over another, what does it even mean to expect one of them? Then add to that a very large number of others—I don’t know how many different experiences are possible given a human brain (and there’s no reason to assume a Boltzmann brain that perceives itself as you do now necessarily has a human-brain number of experiences) - and you have no meaningful choice but to anticipate Earth Eliezer’s future.
Unless I’m missing some important part of your argument, it doesn’t seem that an absolute count of Eliezers is necessary. Can’t you just assume a future consistent with the memories available to the complex set of thought-threads you call you?
I realise I’m getting to (and thus getting through) this stuff a lot later than most commenters. Having looked, though, I can’t find any information on post-interval etiquette or any better place to attempt discussion of the ideas each post/comment produces and, as far as I can tell, the posts are still relevant. If I’m flaunting site policy or something with my various years-late comments, I’m sorry and please let me know so I know to stop.