I agree that in all likelihood a TS/ASI would be very disruptive for the economy.
Under some possible scenarios it would benefit most economic actors (existing and new) and lead to a general market boom.
But under some other possible scenarios (like for example as you mentioned a monopolistic single corporation swallowing up all the economic activity under the command of a single ASI) it would lead to an economic and market crash for all the other economic actors.
Note that a permanent economic and market crash would not necessarily mean that the standards of living would not drastically improve, in this scenario (the monopolistic ASI) the standards of living would not depend on an economic and market crash but on how benevolent/utilitarian the entity controlling the ASI is.
In economic/market terms there are plenty of possible scenarios depending mostly on what the entity controlling the ASI decides to do with regard to economic trade which is indeed the key word here as you rightly mentioned.
Given that it is imho impossible (or at least very speculative) to predict which economic trade configuration and economic scenario would be the most likely to emerge, it is also impossible (or at least very speculative) to predict what the interest rates would become (if they still exist at all).
So to come back to the original question about EMH and AGI/ASI/TS, as it is imho impossible (or very speculative) to predict the economic scenario that will emerge in case of the emergence of an AGI/ASI, the EMH is kept safe by the markets currently not taking into account what impact an AGI/ASI will have on interest rates.
Note that, as mentioned, imho, in case of an AGI/ASI/TS the standards of living would not depend on an economic and market boom or crash but on how benevolent/utilitarian the (entity controlling the) AGI/ASI is.
Please also take into account that TAI (~= AGI) is not the same thing as ASI. It’s now perhaps within the Overton window for normie traders to imagine the arrival of AGI/TAI that will radically automate the economy and will unlock abundance, but imagining that this stage will, perhaps, very soon will be followed by ASI is still outside the Overton window. For example, in the public discourse, there is plenty of discussion of powerful AI taking away human jobs (more often than not with the connotation that it will simultaneously create much more jobs and the economy will flourish, though), but not much if any discussion of powerful AI taking away human lives.
But it seems to me that the market doesn’t take into account the expected time of AGI arrival nonetheless.
Finally, I want to register that I’m not sure that “far superhuman AI” that can make something completely wild with the economy (and, in fact, the whole planet) as it wishes, is that assured idea. It could be that no matter how smart you are, you will still run into painful infrastructure limitations, will need to cooperate with dumb humans (the efficiency of which is capped by human irrationality itself), etc.
1) About AGI being different from ASI: basically this is the question of how fast we go from AGI to ASI i.e. how fast is the takeoff. This is debated and no one can exactly predict how much time it will take i.e. if it would/will be a slow/soft takeoff or a fast/hard takeoff. The question of what happens economically during the AGI to ASI takeoff is also difficult to predict. It would/will depend on what (the entity controlling) the self-improving AGI decides to do, how market actors are impacted, if they can adapt to it or not, government intervention (if the AGI/ASI makes it possible), etc...
2) With regard to the impact of an ASI on the economic world and society I would distinguish between
2a) The digital/knowledge/etc… economy basically everything that can be thought of as “data processing” that can be done by computing devices:
an ASI could take over all of that very quickly.
2b) The “physical” economy… i.e. basically everything that can be thought as “matter processing” that can be done by human bodies, machines, robots, …:
an ASI could take over all of that but it would take more time than the digital world of course as the ASI would/will need to produce many machines/robots/etc… and there could indeed be a bottleneck in terms of resources and laws of physics but if you imagine that the ASI would quickly master fast space travel, fast asteroid mining, fast nuclear fusion, fast robot production, etc… it might not take that long neither. The question of what would happen economically while this happens is also difficult to predict. Traditional/existing economic actors could for example just basically stop as soon as the ASI starts providing any imaginable amount of great quality goods and services to any living entities if the ASI is benovolent/utilitarian (within the constraints of the laws of physics if it is in the real/physical world and if the ASI don’t find ways to overcome the laws of physics in the real/physical world) basically what is called “post-scarcity”.
But there could be other scenarios including economic scenarios as well basically essentially depending on what (the entity controlling) the ASI decides to do, it could decide that people still need to be forced to work to keep some meaning of life so it could artificially maintain a working capitalist economy, etc...
When the digital and physical world are essentially mastered at will then basically it “just” becomes a question of how things are then organized/allocated. Money/interest rates/etc… become unnecessary to do that (but could still be used if that is the choice).
Thank you for your interesting answer :)
I agree that in all likelihood a TS/ASI would be very disruptive for the economy.
Under some possible scenarios it would benefit most economic actors (existing and new) and lead to a general market boom.
But under some other possible scenarios (like for example as you mentioned a monopolistic single corporation swallowing up all the economic activity under the command of a single ASI) it would lead to an economic and market crash for all the other economic actors.
Note that a permanent economic and market crash would not necessarily mean that the standards of living would not drastically improve, in this scenario (the monopolistic ASI) the standards of living would not depend on an economic and market crash but on how benevolent/utilitarian the entity controlling the ASI is.
In economic/market terms there are plenty of possible scenarios depending mostly on what the entity controlling the ASI decides to do with regard to economic trade which is indeed the key word here as you rightly mentioned.
Given that it is imho impossible (or at least very speculative) to predict which economic trade configuration and economic scenario would be the most likely to emerge, it is also impossible (or at least very speculative) to predict what the interest rates would become (if they still exist at all).
So to come back to the original question about EMH and AGI/ASI/TS, as it is imho impossible (or very speculative) to predict the economic scenario that will emerge in case of the emergence of an AGI/ASI, the EMH is kept safe by the markets currently not taking into account what impact an AGI/ASI will have on interest rates.
Note that, as mentioned, imho, in case of an AGI/ASI/TS the standards of living would not depend on an economic and market boom or crash but on how benevolent/utilitarian the (entity controlling the) AGI/ASI is.
Please also take into account that TAI (~= AGI) is not the same thing as ASI. It’s now perhaps within the Overton window for normie traders to imagine the arrival of AGI/TAI that will radically automate the economy and will unlock abundance, but imagining that this stage will, perhaps, very soon will be followed by ASI is still outside the Overton window. For example, in the public discourse, there is plenty of discussion of powerful AI taking away human jobs (more often than not with the connotation that it will simultaneously create much more jobs and the economy will flourish, though), but not much if any discussion of powerful AI taking away human lives.
But it seems to me that the market doesn’t take into account the expected time of AGI arrival nonetheless.
Finally, I want to register that I’m not sure that “far superhuman AI” that can make something completely wild with the economy (and, in fact, the whole planet) as it wishes, is that assured idea. It could be that no matter how smart you are, you will still run into painful infrastructure limitations, will need to cooperate with dumb humans (the efficiency of which is capped by human irrationality itself), etc.
You make good/interesting points:
1) About AGI being different from ASI: basically this is the question of how fast we go from AGI to ASI i.e. how fast is the takeoff. This is debated and no one can exactly predict how much time it will take i.e. if it would/will be a slow/soft takeoff or a fast/hard takeoff. The question of what happens economically during the AGI to ASI takeoff is also difficult to predict. It would/will depend on what (the entity controlling) the self-improving AGI decides to do, how market actors are impacted, if they can adapt to it or not, government intervention (if the AGI/ASI makes it possible), etc...
2) With regard to the impact of an ASI on the economic world and society I would distinguish between
2a) The digital/knowledge/etc… economy basically everything that can be thought of as “data processing” that can be done by computing devices:
an ASI could take over all of that very quickly.
2b) The “physical” economy… i.e. basically everything that can be thought as “matter processing” that can be done by human bodies, machines, robots, …:
an ASI could take over all of that but it would take more time than the digital world of course as the ASI would/will need to produce many machines/robots/etc… and there could indeed be a bottleneck in terms of resources and laws of physics but if you imagine that the ASI would quickly master fast space travel, fast asteroid mining, fast nuclear fusion, fast robot production, etc… it might not take that long neither. The question of what would happen economically while this happens is also difficult to predict. Traditional/existing economic actors could for example just basically stop as soon as the ASI starts providing any imaginable amount of great quality goods and services to any living entities if the ASI is benovolent/utilitarian (within the constraints of the laws of physics if it is in the real/physical world and if the ASI don’t find ways to overcome the laws of physics in the real/physical world) basically what is called “post-scarcity”.
But there could be other scenarios including economic scenarios as well basically essentially depending on what (the entity controlling) the ASI decides to do, it could decide that people still need to be forced to work to keep some meaning of life so it could artificially maintain a working capitalist economy, etc...
When the digital and physical world are essentially mastered at will then basically it “just” becomes a question of how things are then organized/allocated. Money/interest rates/etc… become unnecessary to do that (but could still be used if that is the choice).