The payoff per trade is in the region of 4% with a roughly 30 − 60 day turnaround time. Because of various costs, it’s probably not economical to trade on less than 2k USD as the fixed costs will eat up your margin.
To what degree do you think this is just the “fair price of risk” for doing things on crypto platforms? The returns I’ve seen are roughly inline with various other DeFi opportunities or the contango of the BTC futures curve.
Whilst I think that prediction markets have had some issues this year, I think a large part of that was less about “crypto” and more about “broken prediction markets”. (In fact, the “price of risk” in the spread between (say) Augur / Polymarket and Betfair for the same contract still existed in this period).
So I don’t really think it’s the price of risk. I think it’s just the markets being shallow and inefficient and most casual players being uninterested in a 4% return and unable to exploit one even if they were interested as their transaction fees would erase that margin.
To what degree do you think this is just the “fair price of risk” for doing things on crypto platforms? The returns I’ve seen are roughly inline with various other DeFi opportunities or the contango of the BTC futures curve.
Whilst I think that prediction markets have had some issues this year, I think a large part of that was less about “crypto” and more about “broken prediction markets”. (In fact, the “price of risk” in the spread between (say) Augur / Polymarket and Betfair for the same contract still existed in this period).
So I don’t really think it’s the price of risk. I think it’s just the markets being shallow and inefficient and most casual players being uninterested in a 4% return and unable to exploit one even if they were interested as their transaction fees would erase that margin.