I think usefully massively scaling up funding and the field is hard in various ways, especially doing so very quickly, but I roughly agree if we accept that premise. Overall, I think this is only a small quantitative effect in short timelines because it doesn’t seem that likely, even if it happens it seems likely to not be that good given various difficulties in scaling, and even if it is good, I think the chance of huge improvements isn’t that high (given my understanding of where we are at in the current returns curve). TBC, I think a well run massive AI safety program would greatly lower risk in expectation.
I agree with conjunctiveness, although again more optimistic about huge improvements. I mostly wanted to emphasize that I’m not sure there are structurally robust reasons (as opposed to personal whims) why huge spendings on safety won’t happen
I think usefully massively scaling up funding and the field is hard in various ways, especially doing so very quickly, but I roughly agree if we accept that premise. Overall, I think this is only a small quantitative effect in short timelines because it doesn’t seem that likely, even if it happens it seems likely to not be that good given various difficulties in scaling, and even if it is good, I think the chance of huge improvements isn’t that high (given my understanding of where we are at in the current returns curve). TBC, I think a well run massive AI safety program would greatly lower risk in expectation.
I agree with conjunctiveness, although again more optimistic about huge improvements. I mostly wanted to emphasize that I’m not sure there are structurally robust reasons (as opposed to personal whims) why huge spendings on safety won’t happen