Unfortunately, I don’t have the time at the moment to answer in detail and have more of a conversation, as I’m fully focused on writing a long sequence about pushing for pluralism in alignment and extracting the core problem out of all the implementation details and additional assumption. I plan on going back to analyzing timeline research in the future, and will probably give better answers then.
That being said, here are quick fire thoughts:
I used the evolution case because I consider it the most obvious/straightforward case, in that it sounds so large that everyone instantly assumes that it gives you an upper bound.
My general impression about this report (and one I expect Yudkowsky to share) is that it didn’t made me update at all. I already updated from GPT and GPT3, and I didn’t find new bits of evidence in the report and the discussions around it, despite the length of it. My current impression (please bear in mind that I haven’t taken the time to study the report from that angle, so I might change my stance) is that this report, much like a lot of timeline work, seems like it takes as input a lot of assumption, and gives as output far less than was assumed. It’s the opposite of compression — a lot of assumptions are needed to conclude things that aren’t that strong and constraining.
Thanks for the answer!
Unfortunately, I don’t have the time at the moment to answer in detail and have more of a conversation, as I’m fully focused on writing a long sequence about pushing for pluralism in alignment and extracting the core problem out of all the implementation details and additional assumption. I plan on going back to analyzing timeline research in the future, and will probably give better answers then.
That being said, here are quick fire thoughts:
I used the evolution case because I consider it the most obvious/straightforward case, in that it sounds so large that everyone instantly assumes that it gives you an upper bound.
My general impression about this report (and one I expect Yudkowsky to share) is that it didn’t made me update at all. I already updated from GPT and GPT3, and I didn’t find new bits of evidence in the report and the discussions around it, despite the length of it. My current impression (please bear in mind that I haven’t taken the time to study the report from that angle, so I might change my stance) is that this report, much like a lot of timeline work, seems like it takes as input a lot of assumption, and gives as output far less than was assumed. It’s the opposite of compression — a lot of assumptions are needed to conclude things that aren’t that strong and constraining.