When exactly will the probability estimate go way up?
The probability of living in a holodeck is P(it is possible to build a holodeck) * P(you are in a holodeck|it is possible to build a holodeck). If you ever see or hear about people a holodeck being built, then the first term becomes 1.
The probability of living in a holodeck is P(it is possible to build a holodeck) * P(you are in a holodeck|it is possible to build a holodeck). If you ever see or hear about people a holodeck being built, then the first term becomes 1.