An earlier analysis (previous blog post) looks at the case of a finite world population and shows that, using either the “proximate risk” or “proportion murdered” approach, you still get P(you die | kidnapped) = 1⁄36, because the fact that you are kidnapped is strong evidence that the murderer never murders at all due to running out of people to kidnapped.
An earlier analysis (previous blog post) looks at the case of a finite world population and shows that, using either the “proximate risk” or “proportion murdered” approach, you still get P(you die | kidnapped) = 1⁄36, because the fact that you are kidnapped is strong evidence that the murderer never murders at all due to running out of people to kidnapped.