Consider an example of a 10-people world ( not counting the madman). What happens there? What happens in a 10^n-people world? what happens in the limit of n->infinity?
An earlier analysis (previous blog post) looks at the case of a finite world population and shows that, using either the “proximate risk” or “proportion murdered” approach, you still get P(you die | kidnapped) = 1⁄36, because the fact that you are kidnapped is strong evidence that the murderer never murders at all due to running out of people to kidnapped.
Consider an example of a 10-people world ( not counting the madman). What happens there? What happens in a 10^n-people world? what happens in the limit of n->infinity?
An earlier analysis (previous blog post) looks at the case of a finite world population and shows that, using either the “proximate risk” or “proportion murdered” approach, you still get P(you die | kidnapped) = 1⁄36, because the fact that you are kidnapped is strong evidence that the murderer never murders at all due to running out of people to kidnapped.