4 hours ago, your expected value of a point was $0. In an hour, it increased to $0.2, implying a ~20% chance it pays $1 (plus some other possibilities). By midnight, extrapolated expected value will be $4.19, implying a ~100% chance to pay $1, plus ~45% chance that they’ll make good on the suggestion of paying $10 instead, plus some other possibilities...
Not taking extrapolation far enough!
4 hours ago, your expected value of a point was $0. In an hour, it increased to $0.2, implying a ~20% chance it pays $1 (plus some other possibilities). By midnight, extrapolated expected value will be $4.19, implying a ~100% chance to pay $1, plus ~45% chance that they’ll make good on the suggestion of paying $10 instead, plus some other possibilities...