Ok, but when we ask why this constraint is tight, the answer is because there’s not enough funding. We can’t just increase the size of the field 10x in order to get 10x more top-20 researchers, because we don’t have the money for that.
For example, suppose MATS suddenly & magically scaled up 10x, and their next cohort was 1,000 people. Would this dramatically change the state of the field? I don’t think so.
Now suppose SFF & LTFF’s budget suddenly & magically scaled up 10x. Would this dramatically change the state of the field? I think so!
Now suppose SFF & LTFF’s budget suddenly & magically scaled up 10x. Would this dramatically change the state of the field? I think so!
I do think so, especially if they also increased/decentralized more their grantmaking capacity, and perhaps increased the field-building capacity earlier in the pipeline (e.g. AGISF, ML4G, etc., though I expect those programs to mostly be doing differentially quite well and not to be the main bottlenecks).
Ok, but when we ask why this constraint is tight, the answer is because there’s not enough funding. We can’t just increase the size of the field 10x in order to get 10x more top-20 researchers, because we don’t have the money for that.
For example, suppose MATS suddenly & magically scaled up 10x, and their next cohort was 1,000 people. Would this dramatically change the state of the field? I don’t think so.
Now suppose SFF & LTFF’s budget suddenly & magically scaled up 10x. Would this dramatically change the state of the field? I think so!
I do think so, especially if they also increased/decentralized more their grantmaking capacity, and perhaps increased the field-building capacity earlier in the pipeline (e.g. AGISF, ML4G, etc., though I expect those programs to mostly be doing differentially quite well and not to be the main bottlenecks).