Of course, it could just add complexity and hope that it works, but that’s just evolution, not intelligence explosion.
The critical aspect of a “major-impact intelligence-explosion singularity” isn’t the method for improvement but the rate of improvement. If computer processing power continues to grow at an exponential rate, even an inefficiently improving AI will have the growth in raw computing power behind it.
So: do you know any counterarguments or articles that address either of these points?
I don’t have any articles but I’ll take a stab at counterarguments.
A Majoritarian counterargument: AI turned out to be harder and further away than originally thought. The general view is still tempered by the failure of AI to live up to those expectations. In short, the AI researchers cried “wolf!” too much 30 years ago and now their predictions aren’t given much weight because of that bad track record.
A mind can’t understand itself counterargument: Even accepting as a premise that a mind can’t completely understand itself, that’s not an argument that it can’t understand itself better than it currently does. The question then becomes which parts of the AI mind are important for reasoning/intelligence and can an AI understand and improve that capability at a faster rate than humans.
The critical aspect of a “major-impact intelligence-explosion singularity” isn’t the method for improvement but the rate of improvement. If computer processing power continues to grow at an exponential rate, even an inefficiently improving AI will have the growth in raw computing power behind it.
I don’t have any articles but I’ll take a stab at counterarguments.
A Majoritarian counterargument: AI turned out to be harder and further away than originally thought. The general view is still tempered by the failure of AI to live up to those expectations. In short, the AI researchers cried “wolf!” too much 30 years ago and now their predictions aren’t given much weight because of that bad track record.
A mind can’t understand itself counterargument: Even accepting as a premise that a mind can’t completely understand itself, that’s not an argument that it can’t understand itself better than it currently does. The question then becomes which parts of the AI mind are important for reasoning/intelligence and can an AI understand and improve that capability at a faster rate than humans.