A rationalist interjects: “You should make public predictions about this stuff!” Idk, should I? What should I make predictions about? About whether individual cases succeed, or some broader trends? I’m not sure if it’s worth my time. I really like $ as a metric, not sure what the predictions add. Very open to being convinced here!
Predictions about individual cases would be great. Whenever you take a deposit write down the condition for the bounty being paid out, the amount of the bounty, and your self-assessed likelihood of the person paying the bounty in the following twelve months to you into a public Google Sheet. Maybe, add another row for “time-spent with the person”.
The exercise about thinking beforehand about how likely you will solve the issue for the person is useful for you to understand your method better. It also help informing potential customers well about what they can expect from your service.
Finally, it would be great to have a one-year follow-up after a bounty is paid and that information also added to the Google Sheet.
Predictions about individual cases would be great. Whenever you take a deposit write down the condition for the bounty being paid out, the amount of the bounty, and your self-assessed likelihood of the person paying the bounty in the following twelve months to you into a public Google Sheet. Maybe, add another row for “time-spent with the person”.
The exercise about thinking beforehand about how likely you will solve the issue for the person is useful for you to understand your method better. It also help informing potential customers well about what they can expect from your service.
Finally, it would be great to have a one-year follow-up after a bounty is paid and that information also added to the Google Sheet.
oh ok i might start doing that. knowing my calibration on that would be nice