Makes sense, but I think the key points to then pay attention to is the question of how fast AGI could make technological hardware and software progress. Also, my current model of Eliezer thinks that the hard takeoff stuff is more likely to happen after the AI has killed everyone (or almost everyone), not before, so it’s also not super clear how much that matters (the section in your post about bioweapons touches on this a bit, but doesn’t seem that compelling to me, which makes sense since it’s very short and clearly an aside).
Also, my current model of Eliezer thinks that the hard takeoff stuff is more likely to happen after the AI has killed everyone (or almost everyone)
If EY’s current model has shifted more to AGI killing everyone with a supervirus vs nanotech then analyzing that in more detail would require going more into molecular biology, bioweapons research, SOTA vaccine tech, etc—most of which is distal from my background and interests. But on the onset I do of course believe that biotech is more likely than drexlerian nanotech as the path a rogue AGI would use to kill many humans.
Makes sense, but I think the key points to then pay attention to is the question of how fast AGI could make technological hardware and software progress. Also, my current model of Eliezer thinks that the hard takeoff stuff is more likely to happen after the AI has killed everyone (or almost everyone), not before, so it’s also not super clear how much that matters (the section in your post about bioweapons touches on this a bit, but doesn’t seem that compelling to me, which makes sense since it’s very short and clearly an aside).
If EY’s current model has shifted more to AGI killing everyone with a supervirus vs nanotech then analyzing that in more detail would require going more into molecular biology, bioweapons research, SOTA vaccine tech, etc—most of which is distal from my background and interests. But on the onset I do of course believe that biotech is more likely than drexlerian nanotech as the path a rogue AGI would use to kill many humans.