Also, my current model of Eliezer thinks that the hard takeoff stuff is more likely to happen after the AI has killed everyone (or almost everyone)
If EY’s current model has shifted more to AGI killing everyone with a supervirus vs nanotech then analyzing that in more detail would require going more into molecular biology, bioweapons research, SOTA vaccine tech, etc—most of which is distal from my background and interests. But on the onset I do of course believe that biotech is more likely than drexlerian nanotech as the path a rogue AGI would use to kill many humans.
If EY’s current model has shifted more to AGI killing everyone with a supervirus vs nanotech then analyzing that in more detail would require going more into molecular biology, bioweapons research, SOTA vaccine tech, etc—most of which is distal from my background and interests. But on the onset I do of course believe that biotech is more likely than drexlerian nanotech as the path a rogue AGI would use to kill many humans.