I am sorry to say that on a forum where many people are likely to have been raised in a socio-cultural environnement where libertarian ideas are deeply rooted. My voice will sound dissonant here and I call to your open-mindedness.
I think that there are strong limitations to such ideas as developed in the OP proposal. Insurance is mutualization of risk, it’s a statistic approach relying on the possibility to assess a risk. It works for risks happening frequently, with a clear typology, like car accidents, tempest, etc. Even in these cases there is always an insurance ceiling. But risks that are exceptionnal and the most hazardous, like war damages, nuclear accident etc, cannot be insured and are systematically subject to contractual exclusions. There is no apocalypse insurance because the risk cannot be assessed by actuaries. Even if you create such an insurance, it would be artificial, non rationally assessed, with an insurance ceiling making it useless. There is even the risk that it gives the illusion that everything is ok and acceptable. The insurance mechanism does not encourages responsability, but a contrario irresponsability. On top of that compensation through money is a legal fiction. But in real life money isn’t everything that’s worth. In the most dramatic cases the real damage is never repaired (i.e. loss of your child, loss of your legs, loss of your own life), it’s more a symbolic compensation, “better than nothing”.
As a matter of fact, I have professionnal knowledge of law and insurance, from inside, and I have a very practical experience of what I am saying. Libertarianism encourages an approach that is very theoretical and economics-centered, and that’s honestly interesting, but it is also somehow disconnected from reality. Just one ordinary example among others. A negligent fourniture mover destroyed family goods inherited from generations, not a word of excuses because he said “there are insurances for that”. In the end, after many months of procedure and inenumerable time and energy spent by the victim, the professional’s insurance paid almost nothing because of course old family goods have no economical value for experts. Well, when you see how insurance effectively works in real cases, and how it can often encourages negligent and irresponsible behavior, it is very difficult to be enthousiast at the idea that AI existential hazard could be managed by the subscription of an insurance policy.
I am sorry to say that on a forum where many people are likely to have been raised in a socio-cultural environnement where libertarian ideas are deeply rooted. My voice will sound dissonant here and I call to your open-mindedness.
I think that there are strong limitations to such ideas as developed in the OP proposal. Insurance is mutualization of risk, it’s a statistic approach relying on the possibility to assess a risk. It works for risks happening frequently, with a clear typology, like car accidents, tempest, etc. Even in these cases there is always an insurance ceiling. But risks that are exceptionnal and the most hazardous, like war damages, nuclear accident etc, cannot be insured and are systematically subject to contractual exclusions. There is no apocalypse insurance because the risk cannot be assessed by actuaries. Even if you create such an insurance, it would be artificial, non rationally assessed, with an insurance ceiling making it useless. There is even the risk that it gives the illusion that everything is ok and acceptable. The insurance mechanism does not encourages responsability, but a contrario irresponsability. On top of that compensation through money is a legal fiction. But in real life money isn’t everything that’s worth. In the most dramatic cases the real damage is never repaired (i.e. loss of your child, loss of your legs, loss of your own life), it’s more a symbolic compensation, “better than nothing”.
As a matter of fact, I have professionnal knowledge of law and insurance, from inside, and I have a very practical experience of what I am saying. Libertarianism encourages an approach that is very theoretical and economics-centered, and that’s honestly interesting, but it is also somehow disconnected from reality. Just one ordinary example among others. A negligent fourniture mover destroyed family goods inherited from generations, not a word of excuses because he said “there are insurances for that”. In the end, after many months of procedure and inenumerable time and energy spent by the victim, the professional’s insurance paid almost nothing because of course old family goods have no economical value for experts. Well, when you see how insurance effectively works in real cases, and how it can often encourages negligent and irresponsible behavior, it is very difficult to be enthousiast at the idea that AI existential hazard could be managed by the subscription of an insurance policy.