I don’t see why that would change anything. (This is all assuming my utility in gold bars is linear. Otherwise I’d have to worry about being flat broke and unable to feed myself if I turn out to be the clone.)
OK. Then consider doing this: After the first experiment, take part in the same experiment again, then again and again. You can keep the bars you earned in your pocket.
Say you participated for 100 iterations, by not entering the bet you would have 200 bars. By entering the bet do you expect to have approximately 100*1/3*5=167 bars?
I don’t see why that would change anything. (This is all assuming my utility in gold bars is linear. Otherwise I’d have to worry about being flat broke and unable to feed myself if I turn out to be the clone.)
OK. Then consider doing this: After the first experiment, take part in the same experiment again, then again and again. You can keep the bars you earned in your pocket.
Say you participated for 100 iterations, by not entering the bet you would have 200 bars. By entering the bet do you expect to have approximately 100*1/3*5=167 bars?
That’s the average of what all the clones will have at the end. The original should have about 250.