Stephen McAleese comments on Estimating the Current and Future Number of AI Safety Researchers

[Stephen McAleese]

Edit: rewrote the section on Price’s Law to use Lotka’s Law instead.

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I just realized that Scott Alexander (2018) had previously written specifically about scientific progress, while Holden Karnofsky (2021) had written about broader technological progress.

(Sorry about the long delay; I hope it’s still of interest.)

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Ah, increasing the number of researchers is simply increasing $C$ in $Y=C/X^n$. I didn’t realize that!