We believe we can achieve trans-sapient performance by 2018, he is not that off the mark. But dangers as such, those are highly over-blown, exaggerated, pseudo-scientific fears, as always.
Well, achieving better than human performance on a sufficiently wide benchmark. Preparing that benchmark is almost as hard as writing the code, it seems. Of course, any such estimates must be taken with a grain of salt, but I think that conceptually solid AGI projects have a significant chance by that time (including OpenCog), although previously I have argued that neuromorphic approaches are likely to succeed by 2030, latest.
Confidential stuff, it could be an army of 1000 hamsters. :) To be honest, I don’t think teams more crowded than 5-6 are good for this kind of work. But please note that we are doing absolutely nothing that is dangerous in the slightest. It is a tool, not even an agent. Although I will be working on an AGI agent code as soon as we finish the next version of the “kernel”, to demonstrate how well our code can be applied to robotics problems. Demo or die.
I didn’t read it, but I heard that Elon Musk is badly influenced by it. I know of his papers prior to the book, and I’ve taken a look at the content, I know the material being discussed. I think he is vastly exaggerating the risks from AI technology. AI technology will be as pervasive as the internet, it is a very spook/military like mindset to believe that it will only be owned by a few powerful entities, who will wield it to dominate the world, or the developers will be so extremely ignorant that they will have AI agents escaping their labs and start killing people. Those are merely bad science fiction scenarios, like they have on Hollywood movies, it’s not even good science fiction, because he is talking about very improbable events. An engineer who can build an AI smarter than himself probably isn’t that stupid or reckless. Terminator/Matrix scenarios won’t happen; they will remain in the movies.
Moreover, as a startup person, I think he doesn’t understand the computer industry well, and fails to see the realistic (not comic book) applications of AI technology. AGI researchers must certainly do a better job at revealing the future applications. That will both help them find better funding and attracting public attention, and of course, obtaining public approval.
Thus, let me state it. AI really is the next big thing (after wearable/VR/3dprinting, stuff that’s already taking off, I would predict). It’s right now like a few years before the Mosaic browser showed up. I think that in AI there will be something for everybody, just like the internet. And Bostrom’s fears are completely irrational and unfounded, it seems to me. People should cheer up if they think they can have the first true AI in just 5 years.
It is entertaining indeed that a non computer scientist entrepreneur (Elon Musk) is emotionally influenced by the incredibly fallacious pseudo-scientific bullshit of Nick Bostrom, another non-computer scientist, and that people are talking about it.
So let’s see, a clown writes a book, and an investor thinks it is a credible book while it is not true. What makes this hilarious is people’s reactions to it. A ship of fools.
Do you have any serious counter arguments to ideas presented in a Bostrom’s book? Majority of top AI experts agree that we will have human-level AI by the end of this century, and people like Musk, Bostrom and MIRI guys are just trying to think about possible negative impacts that this development may have on humans. The problem is that the fate of humanity may depend on action of non-human actors, who will likely have utility function incompatible with human survival and it is perfectly rational to be worried about that.
Those ideas are definitely not above criticism but also should not be dismissed based on perceived lack of expertise. Someone like Elon Musk has actually direct contact with people who are working on one of the most advanced AI projects on earth (Vicarious, DeepMind), so he certainly knows what he is talking about.
I do. Nick Bostrom is a creationist idiot (simulation “argument” is creationism), with absolutely no expertise in AI, who thinks the doomsday argument is true. Funnily enough, he does claim to be an expert in several extremely difficult fields including AI and computational neuroscience despite lack of any serious technical publications, on his book cover. That’s usually a red flag indicating a charlatan. Despite whatever you might think, a “social scientist” is ill-equipped to say anything about AI. That’s enough for now. For a more detailed exposition, I am afraid you will have to wait a while longer. You will know it, when you see it, stay tuned!
We believe we can achieve trans-sapient performance by 2018, he is not that off the mark. But dangers as such, those are highly over-blown, exaggerated, pseudo-scientific fears, as always.
What does “trans-sapient performance” mean?
Well, achieving better than human performance on a sufficiently wide benchmark. Preparing that benchmark is almost as hard as writing the code, it seems. Of course, any such estimates must be taken with a grain of salt, but I think that conceptually solid AGI projects have a significant chance by that time (including OpenCog), although previously I have argued that neuromorphic approaches are likely to succeed by 2030, latest.
You understand that you just replaced some words with others without clarifying anything, right? “Sufficiently wide” doesn’t mean anything.
I cannot possibly disclose confidential research here, so you will have to be content with that.
At any rate, believing that human-level AI is an extremely dangerous technology is pseudo-scientific.
Humans can be extremely dangerous. Why wouldn’t a human-level AI be?
By “we” do you mean Gök Us Sibernetik Ar & Ge in Turkey? How many people work there?
Confidential stuff, it could be an army of 1000 hamsters. :) To be honest, I don’t think teams more crowded than 5-6 are good for this kind of work. But please note that we are doing absolutely nothing that is dangerous in the slightest. It is a tool, not even an agent. Although I will be working on an AGI agent code as soon as we finish the next version of the “kernel”, to demonstrate how well our code can be applied to robotics problems. Demo or die.
What did you think of Bostrom’s recent book?
I didn’t read it, but I heard that Elon Musk is badly influenced by it. I know of his papers prior to the book, and I’ve taken a look at the content, I know the material being discussed. I think he is vastly exaggerating the risks from AI technology. AI technology will be as pervasive as the internet, it is a very spook/military like mindset to believe that it will only be owned by a few powerful entities, who will wield it to dominate the world, or the developers will be so extremely ignorant that they will have AI agents escaping their labs and start killing people. Those are merely bad science fiction scenarios, like they have on Hollywood movies, it’s not even good science fiction, because he is talking about very improbable events. An engineer who can build an AI smarter than himself probably isn’t that stupid or reckless. Terminator/Matrix scenarios won’t happen; they will remain in the movies.
Moreover, as a startup person, I think he doesn’t understand the computer industry well, and fails to see the realistic (not comic book) applications of AI technology. AGI researchers must certainly do a better job at revealing the future applications. That will both help them find better funding and attracting public attention, and of course, obtaining public approval.
Thus, let me state it. AI really is the next big thing (after wearable/VR/3dprinting, stuff that’s already taking off, I would predict). It’s right now like a few years before the Mosaic browser showed up. I think that in AI there will be something for everybody, just like the internet. And Bostrom’s fears are completely irrational and unfounded, it seems to me. People should cheer up if they think they can have the first true AI in just 5 years.
+1 for entertainment value.
EDIT: I am not agreeing with examachine’s comment, I just think it’s hilariously bad.
It is entertaining indeed that a non computer scientist entrepreneur (Elon Musk) is emotionally influenced by the incredibly fallacious pseudo-scientific bullshit of Nick Bostrom, another non-computer scientist, and that people are talking about it.
So let’s see, a clown writes a book, and an investor thinks it is a credible book while it is not true. What makes this hilarious is people’s reactions to it. A ship of fools.
Do you have any serious counter arguments to ideas presented in a Bostrom’s book? Majority of top AI experts agree that we will have human-level AI by the end of this century, and people like Musk, Bostrom and MIRI guys are just trying to think about possible negative impacts that this development may have on humans. The problem is that the fate of humanity may depend on action of non-human actors, who will likely have utility function incompatible with human survival and it is perfectly rational to be worried about that.
Those ideas are definitely not above criticism but also should not be dismissed based on perceived lack of expertise. Someone like Elon Musk has actually direct contact with people who are working on one of the most advanced AI projects on earth (Vicarious, DeepMind), so he certainly knows what he is talking about.
I do. Nick Bostrom is a creationist idiot (simulation “argument” is creationism), with absolutely no expertise in AI, who thinks the doomsday argument is true. Funnily enough, he does claim to be an expert in several extremely difficult fields including AI and computational neuroscience despite lack of any serious technical publications, on his book cover. That’s usually a red flag indicating a charlatan. Despite whatever you might think, a “social scientist” is ill-equipped to say anything about AI. That’s enough for now. For a more detailed exposition, I am afraid you will have to wait a while longer. You will know it, when you see it, stay tuned!
What would you be willing to make a bet that nothing remotely resembling that happens before 2020? 2025?