the future, if the West wins, is uncertain in many ways;
war is bad;
and disagree connotationally:
The future of Ukraine, if Russia wins, although much more certain, is definitely not good. I would expect lower quality of life for Ukrainians (compared to the situation before the war, not literally to the moment when bombs are falling on their houses, of course), both from the economical (of a median person) and human rights perspectives.
This war started in 2014 and escalated in spring 2022. What was your opinion on the war back then? The specific thing about autumn 2022 is that the Russian forces are now losing the occupied territory of Ukraine relatively quickly. Also, Russia losing this war might prevent future attempts at conquests. In a parallel reality where Russia gains the territory of Ukraine without much resistance, I would expect taking Belarus next (without much resistance) and within five years yet another attack.
I would expect taking Belarus next (without much resistance)
Isn’t there a good chance for that no matter how the conflict in Ukraine goes? Given that Belarus already has a dictator, would much change through that?
I assume that Lukashenka is probably happier being a sovereign dictator than mere governor. His generals and other people in positions of power probably also prefer being near the top of the food chain rather than being integrated into Russian structures and becoming underlings of someone in Moscow. Their bargaining position, however weak it might be now, would probably get worse. Therefore, I would expect Lukashenka to drag his feet, even if Putin insists.
...why wouldn’t Belarus already be a part of Russia? I doubt that Putin would say no.
EDIT:
Conditional on “Lukashenka wants Belarus to merge with Russia”, my best guess is that his army opposes it (for selfish reasons) and Lukashenka cannot ignore the wishes of his own army.
A decisively defeated Russia will have fewer resources with which to coerce him. And if he’s smart and keeps his powder dry like he has, he will have more resources with which to resist.
And if he gets overthrown in a color revolution, the Belarussians have not yet gotten so much blood on their hands as to preclude support from the West.
In 2014, the rise of the Islamic State was the main thing on my mind. But even then, I saw the fighting in Ukraine as Russia vs America, and both events, along with the rise of Xi and Modi, as part of a tremendous shift from “unipolar” to “multipolar” geopolitics. The Trump presidency, in a sense, completed the revolution, bringing ideological change to America itself—but then Covid scrambled things enough, that there was a liberal restoration under Biden. Still, things are not as they were—Biden is now fighting a three-front struggle, against Putin, Xi, and Trump; and the progressive wing of his own party also has a greatly reduced appetite for global intervention. Whatever its outcome, the war in Ukraine already looks like a struggle between two poles of a multipolar world, rather than a global alliance against a rogue state.
I agree technically:
the future, if the West wins, is uncertain in many ways;
war is bad;
and disagree connotationally:
The future of Ukraine, if Russia wins, although much more certain, is definitely not good. I would expect lower quality of life for Ukrainians (compared to the situation before the war, not literally to the moment when bombs are falling on their houses, of course), both from the economical (of a median person) and human rights perspectives.
This war started in 2014 and escalated in spring 2022. What was your opinion on the war back then? The specific thing about autumn 2022 is that the Russian forces are now losing the occupied territory of Ukraine relatively quickly. Also, Russia losing this war might prevent future attempts at conquests. In a parallel reality where Russia gains the territory of Ukraine without much resistance, I would expect taking Belarus next (without much resistance) and within five years yet another attack.
Isn’t there a good chance for that no matter how the conflict in Ukraine goes? Given that Belarus already has a dictator, would much change through that?
I assume that Lukashenka is probably happier being a sovereign dictator than mere governor. His generals and other people in positions of power probably also prefer being near the top of the food chain rather than being integrated into Russian structures and becoming underlings of someone in Moscow. Their bargaining position, however weak it might be now, would probably get worse. Therefore, I would expect Lukashenka to drag his feet, even if Putin insists.
I heard that Lukashenka lobbied for a merger of Russia and Belarus because he liked his chances of eventually becoming leader of the combined entity.
Yes, but that was decades ago, when Yeltsin was president! The ‘union state’ has been moribund since the early aughts.
😲
But then...
...why wouldn’t Belarus already be a part of Russia? I doubt that Putin would say no.
EDIT:
Conditional on “Lukashenka wants Belarus to merge with Russia”, my best guess is that his army opposes it (for selfish reasons) and Lukashenka cannot ignore the wishes of his own army.
OK, well, here is where I got the information in my previous comment—somewhere in the first 47 minutes of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFmugMGl4Uo
Yes, it’s bad for Lukashenka but that’s not something that matters to us.
Do you think that Lukashenka has more resources to resist if Russia has no territory in Ukraine?
A decisively defeated Russia will have fewer resources with which to coerce him. And if he’s smart and keeps his powder dry like he has, he will have more resources with which to resist.
And if he gets overthrown in a color revolution, the Belarussians have not yet gotten so much blood on their hands as to preclude support from the West.
In 2014, the rise of the Islamic State was the main thing on my mind. But even then, I saw the fighting in Ukraine as Russia vs America, and both events, along with the rise of Xi and Modi, as part of a tremendous shift from “unipolar” to “multipolar” geopolitics. The Trump presidency, in a sense, completed the revolution, bringing ideological change to America itself—but then Covid scrambled things enough, that there was a liberal restoration under Biden. Still, things are not as they were—Biden is now fighting a three-front struggle, against Putin, Xi, and Trump; and the progressive wing of his own party also has a greatly reduced appetite for global intervention. Whatever its outcome, the war in Ukraine already looks like a struggle between two poles of a multipolar world, rather than a global alliance against a rogue state.