I think this post makes sense given the premises/arguments that I think many people here accept: that AG(S)I is either amazingly good or amazingly bad, and that getting the good outcome is a priori vastly improbable, and that the work needed to close the gap between that prior and a good posterior is not being done nearly fast enough.
I don’t reject those premises/arguments out of hand, but I definitely don’t think they’re nearly as solid as I think many here do. In my opinion, the variance in goodness of reasonably-thinkable post-AGSI futures is mind-bogglingly large, but it’s still probably a bell curve, with greater probability density in the “middle” than in super-heaven or ultra-hell. I also think that just making the world a better place here and now probably usually helps with alignment.
This is probably not the place for debating these premises/arguments; they’re the background of this post, not its point. But I do want to say that having a different view on that background is (at least potentially) a valid reason for not buying into the “containment” strategy suggested here.
Again, I think my point here is worthwhile to mention as one part of the answer to the post’s question “why don’t more people think in terms of containment”. I don’t think that we’re going to resolve whether there’s space in between “friendly” and “unfriendly” right here, though.
We might. High dimensional space, tiny target area for anything particularly emotionally salient. Like finding a good book in the Library of Babel. Mostly the universe gets turned into random rubbish.
I think this post makes sense given the premises/arguments that I think many people here accept: that AG(S)I is either amazingly good or amazingly bad, and that getting the good outcome is a priori vastly improbable, and that the work needed to close the gap between that prior and a good posterior is not being done nearly fast enough.
I don’t reject those premises/arguments out of hand, but I definitely don’t think they’re nearly as solid as I think many here do. In my opinion, the variance in goodness of reasonably-thinkable post-AGSI futures is mind-bogglingly large, but it’s still probably a bell curve, with greater probability density in the “middle” than in super-heaven or ultra-hell. I also think that just making the world a better place here and now probably usually helps with alignment.
This is probably not the place for debating these premises/arguments; they’re the background of this post, not its point. But I do want to say that having a different view on that background is (at least potentially) a valid reason for not buying into the “containment” strategy suggested here.
Again, I think my point here is worthwhile to mention as one part of the answer to the post’s question “why don’t more people think in terms of containment”. I don’t think that we’re going to resolve whether there’s space in between “friendly” and “unfriendly” right here, though.
We might. High dimensional space, tiny target area for anything particularly emotionally salient. Like finding a good book in the Library of Babel. Mostly the universe gets turned into random rubbish.