The most optimistic view I’ve heard recently is Vanessa Kosoy claiming 30% chance of pulling it off. Not sure where consensus would be, but I read MIRI as ‘almost certain doom’. And I can’t speak for Eliezer, but if he ever thought that there was ever any hope that AGI might be aligned ‘by chance’, that thought is well concealed in everything he’s written for the last 15 years.
What he did once think was that it might be possible, with heroic effort, to solve the alignment problem.
There is no reason why my personal opinion should matter to you, but it is: “We are fucked beyond hope. There is no way out. The only question is when.”
The most optimistic view I’ve heard recently is Vanessa Kosoy claiming 30% chance of pulling it off. Not sure where consensus would be, but I read MIRI as ‘almost certain doom’. And I can’t speak for Eliezer, but if he ever thought that there was ever any hope that AGI might be aligned ‘by chance’, that thought is well concealed in everything he’s written for the last 15 years.
What he did once think was that it might be possible, with heroic effort, to solve the alignment problem.
There is no reason why my personal opinion should matter to you, but it is: “We are fucked beyond hope. There is no way out. The only question is when.”