I think the scenario you describe sounds sufficiently different to me to count as different. Like you say, we get more experience working with powerful AI systems because there’s a substantial period where they exist but are too expensive to transform the world.
My current view is that things will be crazier than this. Were we to get expensive AGI, I think the world would be transformed (in the relevant sense, i.e. it being too late for us to change the course of history) before the usual cost decreases kick in. Like, usually it takes at least a year for the price to drop by an order of magnitude, right? My intuition is that if we had GPT-6 costing $20,000 it would take less than two years for us to reach the point at which it’s too late.
As often happens, the responses to my question are helping me rethink how I should have phrased the question...
I think the scenario you describe sounds sufficiently different to me to count as different. Like you say, we get more experience working with powerful AI systems because there’s a substantial period where they exist but are too expensive to transform the world.
My current view is that things will be crazier than this. Were we to get expensive AGI, I think the world would be transformed (in the relevant sense, i.e. it being too late for us to change the course of history) before the usual cost decreases kick in. Like, usually it takes at least a year for the price to drop by an order of magnitude, right? My intuition is that if we had GPT-6 costing $20,000 it would take less than two years for us to reach the point at which it’s too late.
As often happens, the responses to my question are helping me rethink how I should have phrased the question...