Yeah. I’m hopeful that versions of them can be found which are appealing to both me and my bet-partners, even if we have to judge using our intuitions rather than math.
I’m working on a big post (or sequence) outlining my views on timelines, but quantitatively they look like this black line here:
Daniel Kokotajlo’s November 2020 TAI Timelines
My understanding is that most people have timelines that are more like the blue/bottom line on this graph.
Yeah. I’m hopeful that versions of them can be found which are appealing to both me and my bet-partners, even if we have to judge using our intuitions rather than math.
I’m working on a big post (or sequence) outlining my views on timelines, but quantitatively they look like this black line here:
My understanding is that most people have timelines that are more like the blue/bottom line on this graph.