Fwiw, in this story I find myself surprised at aAlice’s confidence in her theory. If I were telling a story about an unlearnable theory of mind, I’d be leaning on huge uncertainty that prevents aAlice from doing anything.
It’s an interesting question as to whether aAlice is actually overconfident. Her predictions about human behaviour may be spot on, at this point—much better than human predictions about ourselves. So her confidence depends on whether she has the right kind of philosophical uncertainty.
Fwiw, in this story I find myself surprised at aAlice’s confidence in her theory. If I were telling a story about an unlearnable theory of mind, I’d be leaning on huge uncertainty that prevents aAlice from doing anything.
It’s an interesting question as to whether aAlice is actually overconfident. Her predictions about human behaviour may be spot on, at this point—much better than human predictions about ourselves. So her confidence depends on whether she has the right kind of philosophical uncertainty.
I was trying to put my finger on why I felt confused when reading about aAlice’s beliefs & actions, and I think you nailed the reason.