I think what you are looking for is prediction markets. The ones I know of are:
Manifold Markets—play-money that’s easy and simple to use
Metaculus—more serious one with more complex tools (maybe real money somehow?)
PredictIt—just for US politics? But looks like real money?
There’s no guarantee that they will actually pay out for a long term bet however, since there is no guarantee they will continue existing or honour their obligation, even if they accepted real money. Unless you know of some possibility?
I think what you are looking for is prediction markets. The ones I know of are:
Manifold Markets—play-money that’s easy and simple to use
Metaculus—more serious one with more complex tools (maybe real money somehow?)
PredictIt—just for US politics? But looks like real money?
There’s no guarantee that they will actually pay out for a long term bet however, since there is no guarantee they will continue existing or honour their obligation, even if they accepted real money. Unless you know of some possibility?