That’s just the metaphorical reptilian brain winning the fight for control of the gambler’s body over the metaphorical neocortex. There is a nice bit of fictional evidence about it in the movie Flight, when Nicole, a drug addict, dials her dealer while simultaneously praying for him not to answer the phone. The winner is not money-pumped, but is rendered the requested service.
Sure it does. The utility theory metaphor for the human agent is simply wrong in lots of cases. The human agent isn’t a single agent but a plurality. The study of how pluralities allocate resources and interact is economics / game theory / voting theory, not utility theory per se.
Sure it does. The utility theory metaphor for the human agent is simply wrong in lots of cases. The human agent isn’t a single agent but a plurality.
That doesn’t help. Suppose we have two people, one with a preference for A over B, one with a preference for B over A. If they start out with various amounts of A and B, and trade, trade will eventually stop with a distribution of A and B that no trade can improve on. No money pumping is possible.
Money-pumping through non-transitive preferences can only happen if the preferences exist within the same person. You can talk about sub-agents of a person if you like, but they are not parts of the same person in the way that two people are parts of the same society. Even if we consider those two people fighting over A and B instead of trading, this still does not correspond to what happens within a conflicted individual. In extremis, one actual person can kill the other; the gambler sliding into ruin injures all of himself. Many who suffer from an addiction might wish to cut out and destroy the unwanted motivation, or lock it in jail, or any of the other things that can be done with undesirable people, but this is not currently possible.
The utility theory metaphor for the human agent is simply wrong in lots of cases.
I would say it is a description, not a metaphor, but I agree it is simply wrong in lots of cases. Utility functions define transitive preferences only. An agent with non-transitive preferences does not have a utility function and is not described by utility theory.
You can talk about sub-agents of a person if you like, but they are not parts of the same person in the way that
two people are parts of the same society.
Even if we consider those two people fighting over A and B instead of trading, this still does not correspond
to what happens within a conflicted individual.
Does it make sense to talk about the USA as if it were an agent that could get money pumped? An Obama administration is very different from a Bush Jr. administration.
I think one analogy here is that the human “agent” is ran by powerful executives that rapidly get voted out of office. To the extent that voting models what’s going on inside human heads, negative results on voting also apply..
Does it make sense to talk about the USA as if it were an agent
In some contexts, yes, in others, no. And at best it’s an approximation.
that could get money-pumped?
In everyday language, this is called “playing off one side against the other”.
I think one analogy here is that the human “agent” is ran by powerful executives that rapidly get voted out of office. To the extent that voting models what’s going on inside human heads, negative results on voting also apply..
I agree! My claim is game theory / economics / voting theory are complicated, but well-developed and informative models for human preferences. If they are wrong (as all models are..) they are wrong for more subtle reasons than utility theory. On LW people spend far too much time thinking/talking about utility theory and preferences vs these alternatives. Discourse will improve if more mindshare is moved to better models.
I’ve never liked that slogan, not even with the completion “but some are useful”. Of course, statistics is the science of how to make the best of bad data, and if bad data is all you can get, statistics is what you do. But “all models are wrong” strikes me as furnishing an easy excuse for intellectual laziness.
Rain causes mud; mud does not cause rain. Is that a “wrong model”? Matter is made of atoms; atoms are made of electrons, protons, and neutrons. Is that a “wrong model”? The structure of DNA—a “wrong model”? Of course, if you search assiduously enough you can spy out faults in any assertion anyone makes, but to say that these are wrong in the way that a piece of statistical curve-fitting is “wrong” is, to borrow Isaac Asimov’s quip, wronger than both of them put together.
If I visit my doctor with an illness, what I really want is for the actual disease process to be known, and an intervention that is known to actually fix the problem, in the same way that a car mechanic can find out what is wrong with a car and fix it by understanding what needs to be done and why. True models, that is. In the current state of the art in medicine, there aren’t very many. “All models are false” is a counsel of despair.
Perhaps Box was only talking about statistical models. But we aren’t.
But “all models are wrong” strikes me as furnishing an easy excuse for intellectual laziness.
Ok.
My point (I think we were talking about utilities), is that phenomena well known here on LW such as observed lack of transitive preferences, akrasia, precommitments, and so on, can be usefully viewed via a plurality model of human agency. It’s fine if you don’t like this model, but then you should like the utility function model even less (as its even less realistic).
That’s just the metaphorical reptilian brain winning the fight for control of the gambler’s body over the metaphorical neocortex. There is a nice bit of fictional evidence about it in the movie Flight, when Nicole, a drug addict, dials her dealer while simultaneously praying for him not to answer the phone. The winner is not money-pumped, but is rendered the requested service.
Looking at the two halves of the circle separately does not make the circle go away.
Sure it does. The utility theory metaphor for the human agent is simply wrong in lots of cases. The human agent isn’t a single agent but a plurality. The study of how pluralities allocate resources and interact is economics / game theory / voting theory, not utility theory per se.
That doesn’t help. Suppose we have two people, one with a preference for A over B, one with a preference for B over A. If they start out with various amounts of A and B, and trade, trade will eventually stop with a distribution of A and B that no trade can improve on. No money pumping is possible.
Money-pumping through non-transitive preferences can only happen if the preferences exist within the same person. You can talk about sub-agents of a person if you like, but they are not parts of the same person in the way that two people are parts of the same society. Even if we consider those two people fighting over A and B instead of trading, this still does not correspond to what happens within a conflicted individual. In extremis, one actual person can kill the other; the gambler sliding into ruin injures all of himself. Many who suffer from an addiction might wish to cut out and destroy the unwanted motivation, or lock it in jail, or any of the other things that can be done with undesirable people, but this is not currently possible.
I would say it is a description, not a metaphor, but I agree it is simply wrong in lots of cases. Utility functions define transitive preferences only. An agent with non-transitive preferences does not have a utility function and is not described by utility theory.
Does it make sense to talk about the USA as if it were an agent that could get money pumped? An Obama administration is very different from a Bush Jr. administration.
I think one analogy here is that the human “agent” is ran by powerful executives that rapidly get voted out of office. To the extent that voting models what’s going on inside human heads, negative results on voting also apply..
In some contexts, yes, in others, no. And at best it’s an approximation.
In everyday language, this is called “playing off one side against the other”.
I put little value on these analogies and metaphors of people as collectives. They may be better than the idea of a mind as being a single thing without parts, but unlearning a falsehood does not mean that you now know the truth.
I agree! My claim is game theory / economics / voting theory are complicated, but well-developed and informative models for human preferences. If they are wrong (as all models are..) they are wrong for more subtle reasons than utility theory. On LW people spend far too much time thinking/talking about utility theory and preferences vs these alternatives. Discourse will improve if more mindshare is moved to better models.
I’ve never liked that slogan, not even with the completion “but some are useful”. Of course, statistics is the science of how to make the best of bad data, and if bad data is all you can get, statistics is what you do. But “all models are wrong” strikes me as furnishing an easy excuse for intellectual laziness.
Rain causes mud; mud does not cause rain. Is that a “wrong model”? Matter is made of atoms; atoms are made of electrons, protons, and neutrons. Is that a “wrong model”? The structure of DNA—a “wrong model”? Of course, if you search assiduously enough you can spy out faults in any assertion anyone makes, but to say that these are wrong in the way that a piece of statistical curve-fitting is “wrong” is, to borrow Isaac Asimov’s quip, wronger than both of them put together.
If I visit my doctor with an illness, what I really want is for the actual disease process to be known, and an intervention that is known to actually fix the problem, in the same way that a car mechanic can find out what is wrong with a car and fix it by understanding what needs to be done and why. True models, that is. In the current state of the art in medicine, there aren’t very many. “All models are false” is a counsel of despair.
Perhaps Box was only talking about statistical models. But we aren’t.
Ok.
My point (I think we were talking about utilities), is that phenomena well known here on LW such as observed lack of transitive preferences, akrasia, precommitments, and so on, can be usefully viewed via a plurality model of human agency. It’s fine if you don’t like this model, but then you should like the utility function model even less (as its even less realistic).
I certainly do.