I’ve never liked that slogan, not even with the completion “but some are useful”. Of course, statistics is the science of how to make the best of bad data, and if bad data is all you can get, statistics is what you do. But “all models are wrong” strikes me as furnishing an easy excuse for intellectual laziness.
Rain causes mud; mud does not cause rain. Is that a “wrong model”? Matter is made of atoms; atoms are made of electrons, protons, and neutrons. Is that a “wrong model”? The structure of DNA—a “wrong model”? Of course, if you search assiduously enough you can spy out faults in any assertion anyone makes, but to say that these are wrong in the way that a piece of statistical curve-fitting is “wrong” is, to borrow Isaac Asimov’s quip, wronger than both of them put together.
If I visit my doctor with an illness, what I really want is for the actual disease process to be known, and an intervention that is known to actually fix the problem, in the same way that a car mechanic can find out what is wrong with a car and fix it by understanding what needs to be done and why. True models, that is. In the current state of the art in medicine, there aren’t very many. “All models are false” is a counsel of despair.
Perhaps Box was only talking about statistical models. But we aren’t.
But “all models are wrong” strikes me as furnishing an easy excuse for intellectual laziness.
Ok.
My point (I think we were talking about utilities), is that phenomena well known here on LW such as observed lack of transitive preferences, akrasia, precommitments, and so on, can be usefully viewed via a plurality model of human agency. It’s fine if you don’t like this model, but then you should like the utility function model even less (as its even less realistic).
I’ve never liked that slogan, not even with the completion “but some are useful”. Of course, statistics is the science of how to make the best of bad data, and if bad data is all you can get, statistics is what you do. But “all models are wrong” strikes me as furnishing an easy excuse for intellectual laziness.
Rain causes mud; mud does not cause rain. Is that a “wrong model”? Matter is made of atoms; atoms are made of electrons, protons, and neutrons. Is that a “wrong model”? The structure of DNA—a “wrong model”? Of course, if you search assiduously enough you can spy out faults in any assertion anyone makes, but to say that these are wrong in the way that a piece of statistical curve-fitting is “wrong” is, to borrow Isaac Asimov’s quip, wronger than both of them put together.
If I visit my doctor with an illness, what I really want is for the actual disease process to be known, and an intervention that is known to actually fix the problem, in the same way that a car mechanic can find out what is wrong with a car and fix it by understanding what needs to be done and why. True models, that is. In the current state of the art in medicine, there aren’t very many. “All models are false” is a counsel of despair.
Perhaps Box was only talking about statistical models. But we aren’t.
Ok.
My point (I think we were talking about utilities), is that phenomena well known here on LW such as observed lack of transitive preferences, akrasia, precommitments, and so on, can be usefully viewed via a plurality model of human agency. It’s fine if you don’t like this model, but then you should like the utility function model even less (as its even less realistic).
I certainly do.