I reason with myself that, since the Benefits to the world are almost uncountable while the Costs are finite, even if the Probability of success is small, the Gain for humanity is significant. Something along this line: (9e15 − 7e13) * 1% = 89.3e12 ($)
This is not valid upon reflection because an identical argument holds for any other action, say, everyone buying a tomato. If actions have their effects multiplied by a large number, then we should look for relatively good actions. If the chance of buying a tomato having big effects is small but the gain is really large, then we should look for more effective paths to big gains.
… Uh, I don’t really get your example with tomato. In that case, the cost is relatively small and the benefit is also just marginal. The Probability of getting everyone in the world to buy a tomato is decent—say, 50% - because it’s easy and many of us already bought it in our life. It’s quite different from IAL, yes?
Therefore I couldn’t follow your line of argument. Could you provide examples or elaborate more on ‘effective paths to big gains’?
In summary, I disagree that large expected gains is an argument for action when applied like this. Normally, this heuristic is fine, but here you are multiplying by many instances, meaning there are other likely actions.
In summary of my summary: opportunity cost will sting at scale.
As a note on this:
This is not valid upon reflection because an identical argument holds for any other action, say, everyone buying a tomato. If actions have their effects multiplied by a large number, then we should look for relatively good actions. If the chance of buying a tomato having big effects is small but the gain is really large, then we should look for more effective paths to big gains.
… Uh, I don’t really get your example with tomato. In that case, the cost is relatively small and the benefit is also just marginal. The Probability of getting everyone in the world to buy a tomato is decent—say, 50% - because it’s easy and many of us already bought it in our life. It’s quite different from IAL, yes?
Therefore I couldn’t follow your line of argument. Could you provide examples or elaborate more on ‘effective paths to big gains’?
In summary, I disagree that large expected gains is an argument for action when applied like this. Normally, this heuristic is fine, but here you are multiplying by many instances, meaning there are other likely actions.
In summary of my summary: opportunity cost will sting at scale.